Wang et al. (2025) Drivers and Future Regimes of Runoff and Hydrological Drought in a Critical Tributary of the Yellow River Under Climate Change

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-24
• Authors: Yu Wang, Yong Wang, Wenya Fang, Yuhan Zhao, Ying Zhou, Fangting Wang
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos16121327

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text snippet.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff reduction and hydrological drought in China's Dahei River basin from 1983 to 2022, projecting future trends over the next 40 years. It finds that human activities are the dominant driver of runoff decline (61.4%) and hydrological drought, with future projections indicating more frequent and intense droughts.

Objective

• To simulate hydrological processes, identify runoff changes and hydrological drought characteristics, conduct attribution analysis for 1983–2022, and project future trends over the next 40 years in the middle and upper reaches of the Dahei River.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Middle and upper reaches of the Dahei River, a primary tributary of the Yellow River.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis period: 1983–2022; Baseline period: 1983–1998; Impact period: 1999–2022; Projection period: next 40 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model.
• Data sources: Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text snippet (e.g., satellite, observation, reanalysis).

Main Results

• Total runoff during the impact period (1999–2022) decreased by 55.26% compared to the baseline period (1983–1998).
• Climate change contributed 38.6% to the runoff decline, while human activities contributed 61.4%.
• Climate primarily altered surface runoff (SURQ) and lateral groundwater flow (LATQ) through precipitation changes.
• Land use predominantly influenced total runoff volume by modifying SURQ.
• Both climate and land use exhibited relatively minor effects on LATQ.
• Human activities contribute to hydrological drought at a rate ranging from 36.11% to 94.25%.
• Drought probability is significantly influenced by climate through precipitation and temperature changes.
• Land use primarily mitigates hydrological drought by impacting the three runoff components.
• Over the next 40 years, total runoff is predicted to decrease by 2.08% to 60.16%.
• Hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent, longer in average duration, and more intense in the next 40 years, though the Maximum Drought Duration is anticipated to shorten.
• Hydrological drought presents a trend of intensification in the east and northeast, with central and western regions exhibiting weaker or declining changes.

Contributions

• Quantifies the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff reduction and hydrological drought in the Dahei River basin.
• Differentiates the specific mechanisms by which climate (precipitation and temperature) and land use impact various runoff components (SURQ, LATQ).
• Provides projections of future hydrological drought characteristics (frequency, duration, intensity) and their spatial patterns for the region.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text snippet.

Citation

@article{Wang2025Drivers,
  author = {Wang, Yu and Wang, Yu and Wang, Yong and Wang, Yong and Fang, Wenya and Zhao, Yuhan and Zhou, Ying and Wang, Fangting},
  title = {Drivers and Future Regimes of Runoff and Hydrological Drought in a Critical Tributary of the Yellow River Under Climate Change},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos16121327},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16121327}
}