Iskaliyeva et al. (2025) Hydro-Climatic and Multi-Temporal Remote Analysis of Glacier and Moraine Lake Changes in the Ile-Alatau Mountains (1955–2024), Northern Tien Shan

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-25
• Authors: Gulnara Iskaliyeva, Aibek Merekeyev, Nurmakhambet Sydyk, Alima Amangeldi, Bauyrzhan Abishev, Zhaksybek Baygurin
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos16121333

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigated multi-decadal glacier and lake dynamics (1955–2024) in the Ile-Alatau range, finding significant warming, substantial glacier retreat (47.4% reduction), and an increase in moraine-dammed lakes, highlighting climate's dominant control and increasing glacial lake outburst flood risks.

Objective

• To investigate multi-decadal glacier and lake dynamics (1955–2024) in the Ile-Alatau range of the Northern Tien Shan in relation to observed climate variability, using an integrated hydro-climatic and remote-sensing approach.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Ile-Alatau range of the Northern Tien Shan, across ten river basins.
• Temporal Scale: 1955–2024 (multi-decadal).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Linear regression, Mann–Kendall test.
• Data sources: Temperature and precipitation records from four high-altitude meteorological stations, aerial photographs, Landsat imagery, Sentinel-2 imagery, PlanetScope imagery.

Main Results

• Statistically significant warming observed at all stations: mean annual temperatures increased by 0.14–0.28 °C per decade; summer temperatures increased by 0.15–0.30 °C per decade.
• Precipitation remained stable or slightly decreased.
• Glacierized area decreased by 47.4% (from approximately 269.6 km² in 1955 to 141.7 km² in 2021), representing an approximate annual reduction of 0.72% per year over six decades.
• Moraine-dammed lakes increased by 16–18% between 2017 and 2024.

Contributions

• Provides a long-term (multi-decadal) analysis of hydro-climatic trends, glacier retreat, and moraine lake development in the sensitive Ile-Alatau range, where such integrated studies are scarce.
• Quantifies the rapid regional cryospheric response to sustained climatic warming.
• Highlights the dominant climatic control on glacier loss and lake evolution, emphasizing increasing risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and the need for adaptive water-resource management in Central Asia.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Iskaliyeva2025HydroClimatic,
  author = {Iskaliyeva, Gulnara and Merekeyev, Aibek and Sydyk, Nurmakhambet and Amangeldi, Alima and Abishev, Bauyrzhan and Baygurin, Zhaksybek},
  title = {Hydro-Climatic and Multi-Temporal Remote Analysis of Glacier and Moraine Lake Changes in the Ile-Alatau Mountains (1955–2024), Northern Tien Shan},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos16121333},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16121333}
}