Bai et al. (2025) The Response of Maximum Freezing Depth in the Permafrost Region of the Source Region of the Yellow River to Ground Temperature Change

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-12
• Authors: Xinyu Bai, Wei Wang
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos16121399

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the historical (1981–2014) and projected future (through 2100) evolution of maximum freezing depth (MFD) in the Yellow River source region, revealing a significant shallowing trend linked to rising ground temperatures, with substantial future degradation under climate warming scenarios.

Objective

• To estimate and characterize the historical and future evolution of maximum freezing depth (MFD) in the source region of the Yellow River, Tibetan Plateau, under climate warming.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Source region of the Yellow River on the Tibetan Plateau.
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1981–2014) and future (through 2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Stefan-type formulation (for MFD estimation), Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope (for trend analysis), CMIP6 projections (for future scenarios under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).
• Data sources: Ground-temperature records (from 15 stations), meteorological records (from 15 stations), CMIP6 climate model outputs.

Main Results

• A strong inverse association exists between MFD and annual mean ground temperature, where a 1 °C increase in ground temperature corresponds to an average decrease of approximately 13.2 cm in MFD.
• Historically (1981–2014), MFD progressively shallowed and exhibited a clear meridional gradient, being deeper in the north and shallower in the south.
• Historical low-value MFD zones declined from 0.75 m to 0.50 m, while high-value zones decreased from 2.92 m to 2.83 m.
• Future projections (through 2100) indicate continued MFD shallowing across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), with the strongest decline (approximately 42 percent relative to the historical baseline) occurring under SSP5-8.5.
• Future MFD degradation is most pronounced at lower elevations.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive historical and future characterization of maximum freezing depth (MFD) evolution in the critical Yellow River source region.
• Quantifies the sensitivity of MFD to ground temperature changes, offering a key parameter for permafrost dynamics.
• Offers actionable guidance for understanding ecohydrological processes and for water resource management in a permafrost-dominated region under climate warming.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Bai2025Response,
  author = {Bai, Xinyu and Wang, Wei},
  title = {The Response of Maximum Freezing Depth in the Permafrost Region of the Source Region of the Yellow River to Ground Temperature Change},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos16121399},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16121399}
}