Vaquero et al. (2025) Assessing Catastrophic Historical Floods in a Small Stream: The Case of Tripero River (Villafranca de los Barros, Spain)

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-17
• Authors: J. M. Vaquero, Javier Vaquero‐Martínez, V. M. S. Carrasco, A. J. P. Aparicio, M. C. Gallego
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos16121408

Research Groups

• Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, 06006 Badajoz, Spain
• Instituto Universitario de Investigación del Agua, Cambio Climático y Sostenibilidad (IACYS), Universidad de Extremadura, 06006 Badajoz, Spain
• Departamento de Didáctica de las Ciencias Experimentales y las Matemáticas, Universidad de Extremadura, 10003 Cáceres, Spain
• Center for Sci-Tech Research in Earth System and Energy (CREATE), Instituto de Investigação e Formação Avançada (IIFA), Universidade de Évora, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal

Short Summary

This study reconstructs five catastrophic historical floods (1865-1952) in the Tripero stream, Spain, by integrating historical documentary evidence with meteorological reanalysis data, revealing diverse synoptic patterns and meteorological origins for these events.

Objective

• To analyze, from a meteorological and historical perspective, the catastrophic floods of the Tripero stream that affected Villafranca de los Barros.
• To identify the synoptic patterns responsible for these extreme events and relate them to typical circulation configurations known to produce floods in the Guadiana basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tripero stream catchment (approximately 244 km²) in Villafranca de los Barros, Extremadura, Spain, within the broader context of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula and North Atlantic.
• Temporal Scale: Five specific catastrophic flood events between 1865 and 1952, utilizing reanalysis data spanning from 1836 to the present.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) dataset.
• Data sources:
  • Historical documentary evidence: Municipal archives, administrative reports, eyewitness accounts, and local/national newspapers (e.g., HOY, Extremadura, ABC).
  • Meteorological reanalysis data: Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv3) from NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory, providing six-hourly data at 2° × 2° resolution for variables including sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, temperature, wind at multiple pressure levels, specific humidity, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Precipitable Water Entire Atmosphere (PWEA), and vertical velocity (Omega, dp/dt).

Main Results

• Five catastrophic historical floods of the Tripero stream (1865, 1876, 1903, 1949, 1952) were reconstructed, demonstrating a notable diversity of synoptic configurations and meteorological origins.
• The 1865 (2 October) and 1876 (5 December) floods were linked to large-scale Atlantic disturbances:
  • The 1865 event was associated with a cut-off low system over the northwestern Iberian Peninsula and atmospheric river-type moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic.
  • The 1876 event occurred during an exceptionally negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase (November 1876 recorded the lowest value since 1865 at -4.4) and a tropical moisture atmospheric river, leading to widespread flooding across southwestern Iberia.
• The 1903 (12 July), 1949 (7 June), and 1952 (21–23 May) floods were triggered by intense convective activity (thunderstorms), characteristic of late spring and summer, fueled by local moisture and instability.
  • The May 1952 events showed high CAPE values (J/kg) over southwestern Iberia and large PWEA values over the study area, with soil saturation from the first event amplifying the second.
• The seasonal distribution of Tripero stream floods (autumn, winter, late spring/early summer) contrasts with the predominantly winter occurrence of major floods in the main Guadiana River.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed historical reconstruction and meteorological analysis of catastrophic floods in the Tripero stream, a small, historically understudied basin in southwestern Iberia.
• Demonstrates the efficacy of a multidisciplinary approach, integrating historical documentary evidence with modern atmospheric reanalysis data to understand past extreme hydrometeorological events.
• Identifies two distinct atmospheric mechanisms responsible for floods in the region: large-scale Atlantic disturbances (cut-off lows, negative NAO, atmospheric rivers) and intense, localized convective activity.
• Highlights the vulnerability of urbanizing settlements to flood risks, particularly where urban expansion encroaches on flood-prone areas.
• Emphasizes the importance of historical climatology for enhancing modern flood risk assessment and planning strategies in the context of climate change.

Funding

• Junta de Extremadura (grant no. GR24049).
• FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, I.P., within the framework of UID/06107/2023—Centro de Investigação em Ciência e Tecnologia para o Sistema Terra e Energia (CREATE).
• U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER).
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office.
• NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset).

Citation

@article{Vaquero2025Assessing,
  author = {Vaquero, J. M. and Vaquero‐Martínez, Javier and Carrasco, V. M. S. and Aparicio, A. J. P. and Gallego, M. C.},
  title = {Assessing Catastrophic Historical Floods in a Small Stream: The Case of Tripero River (Villafranca de los Barros, Spain)},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos16121408},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16121408}
}