Zhu et al. (2025) Evaluation and Projection of the Influence of the August Asian–Pacific Oscillation on Precipitation in Northern Xinjiang Based on CMIP6 Simulations

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-22
• Authors: Yichu Zhu, Hua Wei
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17010009

Research Groups

[Information not available in the provided text.]

Short Summary

This study derives two multi-model ensembles (BMME and NCE) from 30 CMIP6 models and reanalysis data to simulate the August Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) and its influence on September precipitation over northern Xinjiang (NXPI). It finds that the BMME performs better than individual models, the APO intensity is projected to decrease, and the negative correlation between APOI and NXPI is expected to weaken significantly after 2040, potentially due to a shift in geopotential height anomalies.

Objective

• To simulate the August Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) and its influence on September precipitation over northern Xinjiang (NXPI) using multi-model ensembles derived from CMIP6 and reanalysis data.
• To analyze the performance of the derived ensembles (BMME and NCE) compared to individual models.
• To project future trends in APO intensity and the correlation between APOI and NXPI under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Asian–Pacific region, northern Xinjiang, East Asia (specifically for geopotential height anomalies).
• Temporal Scale: August (APO), September (precipitation), historical scenario, 2015–2100 (APO intensity trend), 2021–2040 (correlation analysis), subsequent 60 years (correlation weakening).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 30 CMIP6 models, Best Model Multi-model Ensemble (BMME), Negative Correlation Ensemble (NCE).
• Data sources: CMIP6 model data, reanalysis data, observations (for comparison of spatial patterns).

Main Results

• The Best Model Multi-model Ensemble (BMME) performs better than individual models in simulating the eddy temperature in August.
• The BMME-simulated APO intensity shows a general decreasing trend from 2015 to 2100.
• Based on the Negative Correlation Ensemble (NCE), regressions of precipitation and 850-hPa wind fields onto the APO Index (APOI) reproduce spatial patterns similar to observations under the historical scenario.
• The NCE-simulated correlation between APOI and NXPI remains steadily negative during 2021–2040 under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
• This negative correlation between APOI and NXPI weakens significantly over the subsequent 60 years (after 2040).
• The weakening of the negative correlation may be related to a southeastward shift of the negative geopotential height anomaly center over East Asia.

Contributions

• Development and application of two novel multi-model ensemble approaches (BMME and NCE) for simulating the August APO and its regional impacts.
• Provides insights into the projected future trends of APO intensity and its influence on September precipitation over northern Xinjiang under different climate change scenarios.
• Identifies a significant weakening of the negative correlation between APOI and NXPI in the latter half of the 21st century and proposes a potential atmospheric mechanism (geopotential height anomaly shift).

Funding

[Information not available in the provided text.]

Citation

@article{Zhu2025Evaluation,
  author = {Zhu, Yichu and Wei, Hua},
  title = {Evaluation and Projection of the Influence of the August Asian–Pacific Oscillation on Precipitation in Northern Xinjiang Based on CMIP6 Simulations},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17010009},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010009}
}