Abbas et al. (2025) Transition from Slow Drought to Flash Drought Under Climate Change in Northern Xinjiang, Northwest China

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-22
• Authors: Alim Abbas, Batur Bake, Mutallip Sattar
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17010010

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the spatio-temporal dynamics of flash drought (FD) across northern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2023, revealing increased FD frequency and duration after 1980, primarily driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and air temperature.

Objective

• To quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of flash drought (FD) across northern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2023.
• To identify the dominant driving factors of flash drought in the region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern Xinjiang, including the Ili River Valley, Altay region, and northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.
• Temporal Scale: 1961 to 2023 (63 years). Flash drought intensification occurs within days.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Linear trend detection, wavelet analysis, change-point detection, random forest (RF) modeling, Pearson correlation.
• Data sources: Observational data from meteorological stations (e.g., Akdala station) for the period 1961-2023.

Main Results

• Winter in northern Xinjiang is becoming significantly wetter, while annual and other seasonal signals exhibit drying trends.
• After 1980, both flash drought frequency and duration increased; the longest single event lasted 40 days.
• Spatially, flash droughts are concentrated in the Ili River Valley and the Altay region, with Akdala station recording the highest count (nine events).
• Flash drought duration, rather than frequency, peaks on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, where the maximum length reaches 40 days.
• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is ranked as the leading driver of flash drought (20.9% importance), followed by air temperature (17.8%). The sunspot index contributes 6.1%.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive spatio-temporal quantification of flash drought dynamics in northern Xinjiang over a 63-year period.
• Identifies and ranks the dominant climatic and oceanic drivers of flash drought in the region, highlighting the significant roles of PDO and air temperature.
• Offers insights into regional variations in flash drought frequency and duration, particularly the concentration in specific valleys and mountain slopes.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Abbas2025Transition,
  author = {Abbas, Alim and Bake, Batur and Sattar, Mutallip},
  title = {Transition from Slow Drought to Flash Drought Under Climate Change in Northern Xinjiang, Northwest China},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17010010},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010010}
}