Abbate et al. (2025) IDF Curve Modification Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Lombardy Region Using EURO-CORDEX Ensemble

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-23
• Authors: Andrea Abbate, Monica Papini, Laura Longoni
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos17010014

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This paper presents a methodology to reconstruct Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IDF) curves using EURO-CORDEX climate model outputs and Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) techniques to account for climate change. The study projects a significant increase in extreme rainfall depth and a reduction in return periods in Lombardy, Italy, highlighting the necessity of modifying current IDF curves for future hydraulic infrastructure design.

Objective

• To develop and apply a methodology for reconstructing Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IDF) curves by analyzing EURO-CORDEX climate model outputs, evaluating future anomalies in rainfall height and return periods, and comparing them to currently adopted IDF curves to account for climate change impacts on hydraulic infrastructure design.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lombardy, Italy (a region characterized by strong orographic precipitation gradients due to Alpine complex orography). Contextually, the Mediterranean basin is mentioned as a climatic hot-spot.
• Temporal Scale: Future period up to 2100, with specific results for the 2071–2100 ensemble median under RCP 8.5.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: EURO-CORDEX climate models, Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) techniques.
• Data sources: Climatic rainfall series (covering a future period up to 2100) derived from EURO-CORDEX climate model outputs; past recorded rainfall series (for currently adopted IDF curves).

Main Results

• Future anomalies in rainfall depth (H) show an increase of 20–30 mm for the 2071–2100 ensemble median under RCP 8.5.
• A significant reduction in the return period (RP) by 40–60% is projected, meaning a current 100-year event becomes approximately a 40–60-year event by 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5.
• These changes lead to an intensification of extreme events, necessitating the correction of currently adopted IDF curves.
• Applications to hydraulic infrastructure (a stormwater retention tank and a sewage pipe) demonstrated that modified IDF curves significantly alter their design, and unaddressed future RP modification could lead to systematic under-design and increased flood risk.

Contributions

• Presents a novel methodology for reconstructing climate-change-adapted IDF curves by integrating EURO-CORDEX climate model outputs with GEV techniques.
• Quantifies the projected increases in extreme rainfall depth and reductions in return periods for a specific "climatic hot-spot" region (Lombardy, Italy).
• Demonstrates the practical implications of climate change on hydraulic infrastructure design, highlighting the potential for under-design and increased flood risk if current IDF curves are not updated.

Funding

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Abbate2025IDF,
  author = {Abbate, Andrea and Papini, Monica and Longoni, Laura},
  title = {IDF Curve Modification Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Lombardy Region Using EURO-CORDEX Ensemble},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos17010014},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010014}
}