Diouf et al. (2025) Assessment of Spatio-Temporal Trends in Rainfall Indices in Senegal: Validation of CMIP6 Models over the Historical Period and Projections Under Future Climate Scenarios

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-10
• Authors: Ibrahima Diouf, P.A. Fall, Aïssatou Faye, Sémou Diouf, Alassane Diouf, Mamadou Barry, Ansoumana Bodian, Amadou Tidiane Sall
• DOI: 10.3390/cli13120247

Research Groups

• United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Senegal Water Resources Management Activity

Short Summary

This study investigates historical and projected rainfall extremes in Senegal using bias-corrected CMIP6 data to assess risks to water resources under future climate scenarios. It finds that CMIP6 models effectively capture historical patterns, projecting significant shifts in rainfall regimes with prolonged dry periods in the north and heavier rainfall in the south, necessitating urgent adaptation planning.

Objective

• To analyze historical and projected rainfall extremes in Senegal to assess potential risks to water resources under future climate scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Senegal (differentiated into northern and southern regions).
• Temporal Scale:
  • Historical: 1985–2013 (or 1985–2014 for validation)
  • Near future: 2021–2040
  • Distant future: 2041–2060

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 (specifically MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MIROC-ES2L, MRI-ESM2-0, CanESM5, GISS-E2-1-G were identified as best performing).
• Data sources:
  • Bias-corrected CMIP6 data.
  • Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) dataset (for validation).
  • SSP585 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario.

Main Results

• CMIP6 models accurately capture historical rainfall patterns in Senegal.
• The models MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MIROC-ES2L, MRI-ESM2-0, CanESM5, and GISS-E2-1-G are recommended for climate impact assessments due to their strong performance.
• Spatial analysis indicates prolonged dry periods in northern Senegal and heavier rainfall in southern Senegal.
• Under the SSP585 scenario:
  • The near future (2021–2040) projects an increase in consecutive dry days (CDDs) and a decline in extreme rainfall events in northern Senegal.
  • The distant future (2041–2060) projects a reversal in northern Senegal with intensified rainfall (Rx5day).
  • Southern Senegal shows increasing rainfall intensities in the long term.
• These findings highlight significant shifts in rainfall regimes, underscoring the urgency of integrating future climate scenarios into adaptation planning.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of historical and projected rainfall extremes in Senegal using bias-corrected CMIP6 data.
• Identifies specific best-performing CMIP6 models suitable for regional climate impact assessments in Senegal.
• Offers detailed insights into the spatial and temporal shifts in rainfall patterns (e.g., dry periods, extreme events) crucial for water resource management and agricultural planning.
• Emphasizes the critical need for integrating future climate scenarios into adaptation strategies for Senegal.

Funding

• United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Senegal Water Resources Management Activity.

Citation

@article{Diouf2025Assessment,
  author = {Diouf, Ibrahima and Fall, P.A. and Faye, Aïssatou and Diouf, Sémou and Diouf, Alassane and Barry, Mamadou and Bodian, Ansoumana and Sall, Amadou Tidiane},
  title = {Assessment of Spatio-Temporal Trends in Rainfall Indices in Senegal: Validation of CMIP6 Models over the Historical Period and Projections Under Future Climate Scenarios},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/cli13120247},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13120247}
}