Thudium et al. (2025) Contributions of Sunshine Duration and Atmospheric CO2 to Surface Air Warming in Central Europe from 1915 to 2024 and Empirical Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 and Global Emissions

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-13
• Authors: Jürg Thudium, Carine Chélala
• DOI: 10.3390/cli13120250

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the impact of increased surface solar radiation on climate warming in Central Europe and empirically examines the relationship between global CO2 air concentrations and emissions. It finds that increased surface solar radiation accounts for 20-30% of warming, with CO2 concentration accounting for the remaining 70-80%, and estimates an empirical CO2 lifetime of 58 years.

Objective

• To quantify the impact of increased surface solar radiation on climate warming in Central Europe from 1915 to 2024.
• To examine the relationship between CO2 air concentrations and emissions on a global scale using an empirical approach, including evaluating a CO2 lifetime concept.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Central Europe (for warming analysis), Global (for CO2 concentration and emissions analysis).
• Temporal Scale: 1915 to 2024 (for warming analysis), last 130 years (for CO2 lifetime evaluation).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A statistical model with sunshine duration (SSD) and CO2 concentration as independent variables and surface air temperature as the dependent variable.
• Data sources: Data from six long-term measuring stations in Central Europe (for temperature and sunshine duration), and global CO2 air concentration and emission data.

Main Results

• The statistical model, using sunshine duration and CO2 concentration as proxies for short-wave and long-wave radiation, successfully passed all validity and significance tests (error probability, normal distribution of residuals, autocorrelation, statistical power, multicollinearity).
• The increase in sunshine duration (SSD) accounts for approximately 20% of the warming over the last 100 years when considering the entire year.
• In the summer half-year (April–September) and summer (June–August), the increase in SSD accounts for approximately 30% of the warming.
• The increase in CO2 concentration accounts for the remaining 70-80% of the observed warming.
• Studies and models that neglect the influence of increased surface solar radiation may overestimate the influence of greenhouse gases on warming.
• An empirical lifetime concept for CO2, evaluated for the last 130 years, indicates that the development of CO2 air concentration from industrialization until today can be accurately mapped with a lifetime of 58 years.
• Based on a 58-year CO2 lifetime, reducing annual CO2 emissions by approximately half would stabilize CO2 concentrations.

Contributions

• Quantifies the significant contribution of increased surface solar radiation (20-30%) to climate warming in Central Europe, highlighting that its neglect can lead to an overestimation of greenhouse gas influence.
• Provides an empirical evaluation of CO2 lifetime, estimating it at 58 years, which offers an alternative perspective to the cumulative CO2 emissions concept for achieving CO2 concentration stabilization.
• Discusses the implications of the 58-year CO2 lifetime, suggesting that a substantial reduction (around half) in annual CO2 emissions could stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations, contrasting with the 'zero emissions' requirement of the cumulative emissions concept.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Thudium2025Contributions,
  author = {Thudium, Jürg and Chélala, Carine},
  title = {Contributions of Sunshine Duration and Atmospheric CO2 to Surface Air Warming in Central Europe from 1915 to 2024 and Empirical Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 and Global Emissions},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/cli13120250},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13120250}
}