Sîrbu et al. (2025) Regionalization of Updated Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Romania and the Consequences of Climate Change on Sub-Daily Rainfall

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-27
• Authors: Nicolai Sîrbu, Gabriel Racoviţeanu, Radu Drobot
• DOI: 10.3390/cli14010007

Research Groups

National Administration of Meteorology (Romania)

Short Summary

This study evaluates alternative regionalization approaches for Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves in Romania using 30 years of updated precipitation records. It reveals significant changes in rainfall patterns, with short-duration events increasing in intensity and long-duration events generally decreasing, highlighting the urgent need for improved flash flood prevention.

Objective

• To evaluate alternative regionalization approaches (including clustering methods, geographic proximity analysis, and hourly precipitation isolines for a 1:10 Annual Exceedance Frequency) to develop a new regionalization model and corresponding nationwide IDF relationships for Romania.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nationwide (Romania), based on 68 meteorological stations.
• Temporal Scale: 30 years of precipitation records; analysis of short-duration (5 min, 10 min, 30 min) and long-duration (3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h) rainfall events.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Regionalization approaches including clustering methods, geographic proximity analysis, and hourly precipitation isolines for a 1:10 Annual Exceedance Frequency.
• Data sources: Updated IDF curves provided by the National Administration of Meteorology, based on 30 years of precipitation records from 68 meteorological stations across Romania; raster-based regional rainfall datasets from 1973 and 2025 regionalizations.

Main Results

• Significant changes in precipitation patterns were observed when comparing 1973 and 2025 regionalizations.
• Short-duration rainfall events (5 min, 10 min, and 30 min) have increased in intensity across most regions of Romania.
• Long-duration rainfall events (3 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h) have generally decreased in magnitude in several areas.
• These findings indicate a growing trend toward more intense short-term convective storms.

Contributions

• Provides updated Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for Romania, replacing outdated regionalized graphs from 1973.
• Develops a new regionalization model and nationwide IDF relationships based on recent 30-year precipitation data.
• Quantifies the shift in rainfall patterns, showing increased intensity for short-duration events and decreased magnitude for long-duration events, crucial for climate-resilient infrastructure design.
• Highlights the urgent need for improved flash flood prevention and urban stormwater management strategies in Romania.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sîrbu2025Regionalization,
  author = {Sîrbu, Nicolai and Racoviţeanu, Gabriel and Drobot, Radu},
  title = {Regionalization of Updated Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Romania and the Consequences of Climate Change on Sub-Daily Rainfall},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/cli14010007},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14010007}
}