Kallas et al. (2025) Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Litani River Basin in Lebanon for the Period 2009–2019 and Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Under RCP Scenarios

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Identification

• Journal: Forests
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-13
• Authors: Georgio Kallas, Salim Kattar, Guillermo Palacios-Rodríguez
• DOI: 10.3390/f16091461

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigates the combined impacts of climate change and land use changes on water resources and soil conditions in the Litani River Basin, revealing significant declines in infiltration, runoff, and soil moisture, especially under severe climate scenarios and exacerbated by deforestation and urban expansion.

Objective

• To investigate the combined impact of climate change and land use changes on water resources and soil conditions in the Litani River Basin (LRB) in Lebanon.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Litani River Basin (LRB), Lebanon; a Mediterranean watershed.
• Temporal Scale: Historical assessment for 2009, 2014, and 2019; projections for 2040 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WiMMed (Water Integrated Management for Mediterranean Watersheds) model.
• Data sources: 2019 climate conditions (used for projections); implicitly, land use data and other hydrological inputs for the WiMMed model.

Main Results

• Significant declines in infiltration, runoff, and soil moisture are projected, particularly under the RCP 8.5 scenario and most pronounced during summer.
• Land use changes, such as deforestation and urban expansion, are identified as key factors reducing infiltration and increasing runoff.
• Soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation variations; a 20% reduction in precipitation combined with a 5 °C temperature increase leads to substantial decreases in soil moisture.

Contributions

• Quantifies the combined impact of climate change and land use changes on water resources and soil conditions in the vulnerable Litani River Basin, a representative Mediterranean watershed.
• Provides critical insights for sustainable land management, climate mitigation strategies, and preparedness for droughts or flooding events for policymakers, farmers, and environmentalists.
• Utilizes the WiMMed model to assess hydrological variables under future climate and land use scenarios in a specific Mediterranean context.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Kallas2025Modeling,
  author = {Kallas, Georgio and Kattar, Salim and Palacios-Rodríguez, Guillermo},
  title = {Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Litani River Basin in Lebanon for the Period 2009–2019 and Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Under RCP Scenarios},
  journal = {Forests},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/f16091461},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/f16091461}
}