Hussien et al. (2025) Forest Landscape Transformation in the Ecotonal Watershed of Central South Africa: Evidence from Remote Sensing and Asymmetric Land Change Analysis

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Identification

• Journal: Forests
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-31
• Authors: Kassaye Hussien, Yali E. Woyessa
• DOI: 10.3390/f17010064

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed forest cover dynamics in a South African ecotonal landscape from 1990 to 2022, revealing an initial period of forest fragmentation and decline followed by significant regeneration, particularly along riparian corridors, demonstrating strong vegetation feedback to hydrological and anthropogenic drivers.

Objective

• To examine Forest Land (FL) dynamics in relation to eight other land cover classes across three periods (1990–2014, 2014–2022, and 1990–2022) in an ecotonal landscape, quantifying changes in magnitude, direction, and source–sink relationships.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Ecotonal landscape in South Africa, focusing on the eastern central part of the study area.
• Temporal Scale: Three periods: 1990–2014, 2014–2022, and 1990–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: TerrSet–LiberaGIS Land Change Modeller
• Data sources: South African National Land Cover datasets
• Methods: Post-classification comparison, transition matrices, asymmetric gain–loss metrics.

Main Results

• Between 1990 and 2014, forests remained marginal and fragmented, while shrubland increased from 40.4% to 60.2% at the expense of grasslands, cultivated land, bare land, wetlands, and forest land. During this period, forests acted as a sink.
• From 2014 to 2022, Forest Land (FL) regeneration significantly increased from 2% to 6%, especially along riparian corridors and reservoir margins, coinciding with a 99.3% decline in shrubland and a 261.2% recovery of grassland. Forests acted as a source of ecological resilience.
• Over the entire 1990–2022 period, FL increased from 2.4% to 6%, expanding into bare land, cultivated land, grassland, shrubland, and wetlands. Forests acted as a source of ecological resilience.
• The findings demonstrate strong vegetation feedback to hydrological and anthropogenic drivers.

Contributions

• Quantifies the magnitude, direction, and source–sink relationships of forest cover change in a sensitive ecotonal landscape over distinct periods (1990–2014, 2014–2022, 1990–2022).
• Highlights the potential for forest recovery to enhance biodiversity, ecosystem services, carbon storage, and hydrological regulation.
• Identifies priority areas for riparian conservation and integrated catchment management based on observed regeneration patterns.
• Provides evidence of strong vegetation feedback to hydrological and anthropogenic drivers in ecotonal systems.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Hussien2025Forest,
  author = {Hussien, Kassaye and Woyessa, Yali E.},
  title = {Forest Landscape Transformation in the Ecotonal Watershed of Central South Africa: Evidence from Remote Sensing and Asymmetric Land Change Analysis},
  journal = {Forests},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/f17010064},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/f17010064}
}