Carril-Rojas et al. (2025) A Flood Forecasting Method in the Francolí River Basin (Spain) Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and an Analog-Based Precipitation Forecast

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-08-19
• Authors: Daniel Carril-Rojas, Carlo Guzzon, Luis Mediero, Javier Fernández-Fidalgo, Luís Garrote, María Carmen Llasat, Raül Marcos-Matamoros
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology12080220

Research Groups

Specific research groups, labs, or departments are not explicitly mentioned in the provided text. The study focuses on the Francolí river basin in Catalonia, Spain, suggesting involvement from institutions or researchers in that region specializing in hydrology and flood forecasting.

Short Summary

This paper proposes a probabilistic flood forecasting tool for the Francolí river basin in Catalonia, Spain, by calibrating the RIBS distributed hydrological model and using analog-method-based rainfall forecasts to generate real-time probabilistic streamflow predictions.

Objective

• To develop and propose a real-time probabilistic flood forecasting tool for the Francolí river basin in Catalonia, Spain, capable of estimating streamflows and their probability distributions over the next few hours and days.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Francolí river basin, Catalonia, Spain.
• Temporal Scale: Forecasts for the next few hours and days; calibration and testing based on a set of historical flood events.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model.
• Data sources: Rainfall field forecasts based on the analog method, used as input for the hydrological model.

Main Results

• A probabilistic flood forecasting tool was successfully proposed and applied to the Francolí river basin.
• The RIBS distributed hydrological model was calibrated for a set of flood events within the basin.
• The tool provides a probability distribution of possible response flows for given flood episodes by integrating analog-method-based rainfall forecasts with the calibrated hydrological model.

Contributions

• Addresses the critical need for real-time flood forecasting in Spain, particularly in the Francolí river basin, following recent flooding events.
• Proposes a novel integration of analog-method-based rainfall forecasts with a distributed hydrological model (RIBS) to generate probabilistic streamflow predictions.
• Provides a framework for real-time flood risk assessment by supplying the probability distribution of potential river flows.

Funding

Funding information is not provided in the supplied paper text.

Citation

@article{CarrilRojas2025Flood,
  author = {Carril-Rojas, Daniel and Guzzon, Carlo and Mediero, Luis and Fernández-Fidalgo, Javier and Garrote, Luís and Llasat, María Carmen and Marcos-Matamoros, Raül},
  title = {A Flood Forecasting Method in the Francolí River Basin (Spain) Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and an Analog-Based Precipitation Forecast},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology12080220},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12080220}
}