Wang et al. (2025) Runoff Prediction in the Songhua River Basin Based on WEP Model

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-09
• Authors: Xinyu Wang, Changlei Dai, Gengwei Liu, Xiao Yang, Jiang Jing, Qing Ru
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology12100266

Research Groups

Not explicitly provided in the text.

Short Summary

This paper investigates historical and projected hydrological changes in the Songhua River Basin, revealing that future climate change, particularly temperature increases, will significantly alter runoff patterns, elevate summer flood risk, and lead to system instability at a 2.5 °C warming threshold.

Objective

• Investigate historical and project future hydrological changes in the Songhua River Basin (main stream, Second Songhua, Nenjiang) under the influence of climate change and human activities.
• Quantify the impact of various climate change scenarios on temperature, precipitation, and runoff, and assess the resulting water security challenges and flood risks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Songhua River Basin, northeast China, specifically the main stream basin of the Songhua River, the Second Songhua River Basin, and the Nenjiang River Basin.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1990-2000 for land use changes, historical river records reconstructed); Future projections under climate scenarios (e.g., SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: WEP model (physically based hydrological model), Machine learning techniques, Signal processing techniques.
• Data sources: Reconstructed historical river records, Climate projections (e.g., SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5 scenarios).

Main Results

• Historical river records were reconstructed with high accuracy, achieving determination coefficients exceeding 0.97.
• The physically based WEP model effectively simulated both natural and human-induced hydrological processes in the northern Nenjiang region.
• Climate projections indicate clear temperature increases across all scenarios, with the most significant warming under SSP5-8.5.
• Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, runoff increases by 8.52% to 12.02%, with precipitation driving 62% to 78% of these changes.
• Summer runoff shows the most significant increase, while autumn runoff decreases, particularly in the Nenjiang Basin due to permafrost loss altering spring melt patterns.
• This leads to an elevated summer flood risk, with the rate of increase strongly dependent on the climate scenario.
• Water resources exhibit strong scenario dependence; the average growth rate under SSP5-8.5 is 4 times that of SSP1-2.6.
• A critical threshold for system instability is reached at a 2.5 °C increase in temperature.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of historical and projected hydrological changes in the Songhua River Basin, integrating advanced machine learning, signal processing, and physically based hydrological modeling.
• Quantifies the scenario-dependent impacts of climate change on runoff and flood risk, highlighting the dominant role of precipitation and the influence of permafrost loss on spring melt.
• Identifies a critical temperature threshold (2.5 °C) for hydrological system instability, offering a key metric for climate change adaptation planning.
• Emphasizes the necessity for spatially differentiated adaptation strategies, enhanced infrastructure resilience to flow changes, and cross-basin coordination to address emerging water security challenges in rapidly changing northern regions.

Funding

Not explicitly provided in the text.

Citation

@article{Wang2025Runoff,
  author = {Wang, Xinyu and Dai, Changlei and Liu, Gengwei and Yang, Xiao and Jing, Jiang and Ru, Qing},
  title = {Runoff Prediction in the Songhua River Basin Based on WEP Model},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology12100266},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100266}
}