Mubeen et al. (2025) A Geospatial Assessment Toolbox for Spatial Allocation of Large-Scale Nature-Based Solutions for Hydrometeorological Risk Reduction

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-17
• Authors: Adam Mubeen, Vishal Balaji Devanand, Laddaporn Ruangpan, Zoran Vojinović, Arlex Sánchez, Jasna Plavšić, Nataša Manojlović, Guido Paliaga, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, João P. Leitão, Agnieszka Wojcieszak, Marzena Rutkowska-Filipczak, Katarzyna Izydorczyk, Tamara Sudar, Božidar Deduš, Draženka Kvesić, Lyudmil Ikonomov, Valery Penchev
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology12100272

Research Groups

• Department of Biotechnology, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
• Water Supply Sanitation Environmental Engineering, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, The Netherlands
• Deltares, The Netherlands
• Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, University of Exeter, UK
• Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, Serbia
• Institute of River and Coastal Engineering, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Germany
• Geographical Information Systems International Group, GISIG, Italy
• International Institute of Aquaculture and Aquatic Sciences (I-AQUAS), Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia
• Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag), Switzerland
• Regionalny Zarzad Gospodarki Wodnej w Warszawie, Poland
• European Regional Centre for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland
• Institute for Water Management, Bosnia and Herzegovina
• PRONING DHI Ltd., Croatia
• Consulting Centre for Sustainable Development Geopont-Intercom Ltd., Bulgaria
• Black Sea–Danube Association for Research and Development (BDCA), Bulgaria

Short Summary

This study developed and improved a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis toolbox for spatially allocating large-scale Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) to reduce hydrometeorological risks, demonstrating its application across six European river basins and identifying suitable areas for floodplain restoration, retention/detention, afforestation, and forest buffer strips. The improved models, incorporating higher-resolution land use data, showed a decrease in suitable areas compared to previous versions, highlighting enhanced accuracy in avoiding built-up zones.

Objective

• To update and expand a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis methodology for geospatial assessment and allocation of large-scale Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) for hydrometeorological risk reduction.
• To develop models for assessing the suitability of afforestation and forest buffer strips, in addition to existing models for floodplain restoration and retention/detention.
• To apply the improved methodology to six European river basins to identify suitable areas for these NBSs.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Six European river basins: Bregana River Basin (92 km²), Jadar River Basin (990 km²), Kamchia River Basin (5358 km²), Pilica River Basin (9252 km²), Tamnava River Basin (726 km²), and Vrbanja River Basin (804 km²). The analysis was conducted at catchment and sub-catchment levels.
• Temporal Scale: Data sources include Corine Land Cover 2018 and ESA WorldCover 2021. Historical flood events from 2005, 2014, and 2015 were referenced to identify hazards. The study period for data acquisition and model development is implied to be leading up to the publication year 2025.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: GIS-based Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) implemented in ArcGIS Pro 3.3 (compatible with 3.4 and 3.5) ModelBuilder environment. Boolean maps were generated and combined through intersection.
• Data sources:
  • Digital Elevation Models (DEMs): EU-DEM version 1.1 (30 m resolution).
  • River Network: HydroSHEDS (500 m resolution).
  • Road Network: MapCruzin (500 m resolution).
  • Land Use/Land Cover (LULC): Corine Land Cover (CLC) 2018 (100 m resolution) and ESA WorldCover 2021 (10 m resolution).
  • Hydrogeology: International Hydrogeological Map of Europe (IHME1500) produced by BGR (1500 m resolution).

Main Results

• The geospatial suitability for large-scale NBSs across the six study areas ranged from 7.58% (676 hectares) of the catchment area in the Bregana River Basin to 47.07% (42,033 hectares) in the Jadar River Basin.
• Afforestation (AF) generally showed the highest suitability among the NBSs, except for the Pilica River Basin, where retention/detention (RD) was highest.
• Retention/detention (RD) showed the next highest level of suitability, while floodplain restoration (FP) generally had the lowest due to its restriction to downstream areas.
• Suitability for riparian forest buffer strips (FB) ranged from 4.21% of stream length in Bregana to 39.63% in Jadar.
• Significant overlap (intersection) was observed between suitable areas for different NBSs, particularly between AF and RD, indicating potential for combined measures.
• The improved models, incorporating ESA WorldCover 2021 for better delineation of built-up areas, resulted in a decrease in suitable areas compared to previous models (e.g., 8.92% decrease for FP and 5.57% for RD in Tamnava River Basin), indicating enhanced accuracy by excluding small settlements.

Contributions

• Improved and expanded an existing GIS-based multi-criteria analysis toolbox for spatial allocation of large-scale Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) by adding models for afforestation and forest buffer strips.
• Enhanced the accuracy of suitability mapping by integrating higher-resolution ESA WorldCover 2021 data to better delineate and exclude built-up areas, addressing a limitation of previous tools.
• Updated the toolbox for compatibility with modern GIS software (ArcGIS Pro 3.3+), ensuring its continued usability.
• Demonstrated the applicability and effectiveness of the improved methodology across a diverse set of six European river basins, providing practical suitability maps for regional planning.
• Highlighted the potential for combining multiple NBSs in intersecting suitable zones to achieve greater risk reduction and co-benefits.

Funding

• European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement no. 776866 for the research project RECONECT (Regenerating ECOsystems with Nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk rEduCTion).

Citation

@article{Mubeen2025Geospatial,
  author = {Mubeen, Adam and Devanand, Vishal Balaji and Ruangpan, Laddaporn and Vojinović, Zoran and Sánchez, Arlex and Plavšić, Jasna and Manojlović, Nataša and Paliaga, Guido and Abdullah, Ahmad Fikri and Leitão, João P. and Wojcieszak, Agnieszka and Rutkowska-Filipczak, Marzena and Izydorczyk, Katarzyna and Sudar, Tamara and Deduš, Božidar and Kvesić, Draženka and Ikonomov, Lyudmil and Penchev, Valery},
  title = {A Geospatial Assessment Toolbox for Spatial Allocation of Large-Scale Nature-Based Solutions for Hydrometeorological Risk Reduction},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology12100272},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100272}
}