Shrestha et al. (2025) Impact of Urbanization on Flooding and Risk Based on Hydrologic–Hydraulic Modeling and Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Case of Kathmandu Valley of Nepal

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-30
• Authors: Badri Bhakta Shrestha, Mohamed Rasmy, Katsunori Tamakawa, Srijana Joshi, Daisuke Kuribayashi
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology12110283

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed the impact of urbanization and land use/land cover changes on flooding and flood risk in Nepal's Kathmandu Valley, finding that future urbanization is projected to significantly increase flood inundation extent, volume, and the area of high-risk zones.

Objective

• To analyze land use/land cover changes and assess how urbanization impacts flooding and flood risk in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, by integrating hydrologic–hydraulic modeling with a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis approach.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.
• Temporal Scale: Past years (using satellite imagery), future years (projected based on machine learning), and analysis of specific flood scales (e.g., 200-year flood).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) model (for hydrologic–hydraulic flood simulations).
  • Analytic Hierarchy Process-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (AHP-MCDA) approach (for flood risk assessment).
  • Machine learning techniques (for projecting future land use/land cover maps).
• Data sources:
  • Landsat satellite images (for generating past land cover maps).

Main Results

• Urbanization is projected to increase the flood inundation extent for a 200-year flood by 10.66%.
• The peak inundation volume for a 200-year flood is projected to increase by 15.04% due to urbanization.
• Urbanization may lead to an expansion of high-risk areas by 3.2% in the future.
• Urbanization may lead to an expansion of very-high-risk areas by 9.4% in the future.
• These changes indicate an increase in the valley’s flood vulnerability and greater severity of flood hazards.

Contributions

• Quantified the projected impact of urbanization on flood inundation extent and volume in the Kathmandu Valley.
• Developed a comprehensive flood risk assessment by integrating hydrologic–hydraulic modeling with the AHP-MCDA approach under varying land cover conditions.
• Utilized machine learning techniques to project future land use/land cover changes, providing forward-looking insights into flood risk.
• Identified specific increases in high-risk and very-high-risk areas, highlighting future flood vulnerability.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Shrestha2025Impact,
  author = {Shrestha, Badri Bhakta and Rasmy, Mohamed and Tamakawa, Katsunori and Joshi, Srijana and Kuribayashi, Daisuke},
  title = {Impact of Urbanization on Flooding and Risk Based on Hydrologic–Hydraulic Modeling and Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Case of Kathmandu Valley of Nepal},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology12110283},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110283}
}