Hu et al. (2025) Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Watershed Hydrology, Southern Ontario: An Integrated SDSM–SWAT Approach

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-28
• Authors: Rong Hu, Ramesh Pall Rudra, Rituraj Shukla, Ashok Kumar Shaw, Pradeep Goel
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13010013

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text, but likely academic or governmental institutions focused on water resources and environmental science in Southern Ontario, Canada.

Short Summary

This study projects the hydrological and sedimentological impacts of climate change in the Canagagigue Creek Watershed, Southern Ontario, for 2025–2044 using an integrated SDSM-SWAT approach, revealing significant reductions in water yield and sediment transport capacity, leading to increased in-stream deposition risks.

Objective

• To project the impacts of climate change (under the IPCC A2 scenario) on the hydrology and sediment dynamics of the Canagagigue Creek Watershed in Southern Ontario, Canada, for the period 2025–2044.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Canagagigue Creek Watershed (CCW), Southern Ontario, Canada (local-scale).
• Temporal Scale: 2025–2044.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2012.
• Data sources: Climate projections based on the IPCC A2 scenario.

Main Results

• Evapotranspiration is projected to account for nearly 70% of annual precipitation.
• Total water yield is projected to decrease by approximately 30%.
• The annual streamflow peak is projected to shift from March to April, indicating a transition from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-influenced system.
• Extended low-flow periods are projected, increasing drought risk.
• Sediment yield at the watershed outlet is projected to decrease by 7.9% to 10.5%.
• The reduction in streamflow implies a weakened sediment transport capacity.
• Increased in-stream deposition is projected, posing a dual threat: elevating flood risk through channel aggradation and creating a long-term sink for agricultural pollutants, degrading water quality.

Contributions

• Provides a targeted, local-scale assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and sediment dynamics by integrating SDSM and SWAT.
• Offers a blueprint for climate-resilient land and water management strategies.
• Highlights the complex, interacting challenges of water quantity and sediment transport under future climate conditions.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Hu2025Climate,
  author = {Hu, Rong and Rudra, Ramesh Pall and Shukla, Rituraj and Shaw, Ashok Kumar and Goel, Pradeep},
  title = {Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Watershed Hydrology, Southern Ontario: An Integrated SDSM–SWAT Approach},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13010013},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13010013}
}