Ahmed et al. (2025) Vegetation Dynamics and Climate Variability in Conflict Zones: A Case Study of Sortony Internally Displaced Camp, Darfur, Sudan

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-08-20
• Authors: Abdalrahman Ahmed, Brian Rotich, Harison Kiplagat Kipkulei, Azaria Stephano Lameck, Bence Gallai, Kornél Czimber
• DOI: 10.3390/land14081680

Research Groups

Not specified

Short Summary

This study analyzes vegetation dynamics and climate variability around the Sortony IDP camp in Darfur, Sudan, revealing a significant increase in vegetation cover and a reduction in drought severity since 2015.

Objective

• To investigate long-term climate variability and quantify changes in vegetation cover in the vicinity of the Sortony IDP camp to assess ecological resilience in a conflict-affected region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Vicinity of the Sortony IDP camp, Darfur, Sudan.
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2024 (climate and drought analysis); 2015–2024 (vegetation cover assessment); projections up to 2034.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) for precipitation forecasting, SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) for drought assessment (6-, 9-, and 12-month timescales), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for vegetation quantification.
• Data sources: PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 Level 2A satellite imagery; precipitation and temperature climate data.

Main Results

• Vegetation Cover Increase: Dense vegetation increased by 3.50%, moderate vegetation by 17.33%, and low vegetation by 30.22%.
• Vegetation Cover Decrease: Sparse vegetation decreased by 4.55% and non-vegetated areas declined by 46.51%.
• Climate Trends: A marked reduction in drought frequency and severity occurred after 2015, following a prolonged drought period between 2000 and 2014.
• Future Projections: ARIMA modeling suggests a continued increase in rainfall through 2034.

Contributions

• Demonstrates the potential for ecological resilience in conflict-affected landscapes and highlights the critical need for sustainable land-use planning and climate-adaptive management in humanitarian settings.

Funding

Not specified

Citation

@article{Ahmed2025Vegetation,
  author = {Ahmed, Abdalrahman and Rotich, Brian and Kipkulei, Harison Kiplagat and Lameck, Azaria Stephano and Gallai, Bence and Czimber, Kornél},
  title = {Vegetation Dynamics and Climate Variability in Conflict Zones: A Case Study of Sortony Internally Displaced Camp, Darfur, Sudan},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/land14081680},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land14081680}
}