Baillarget et al. (2025) Permafrost Degradation: Mechanisms, Effects, and (Im)Possible Remediation

Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-26
• Authors: Doriane Baillarget, Gianvito Scaringi
• DOI: 10.3390/land14101949

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrogeology, Engineering Geology and Applied Geophysics, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
• Department of Earth, Water and Environmental Sciences, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France

Short Summary

This review synthesizes the mechanisms and consequences of permafrost degradation, highlighting its widespread impacts on hydrological, ecological, and engineered systems. It concludes that systematic remediation efforts are largely unfeasible given the current pace of climate change, necessitating a strategic shift towards adaptation.

Objective

• To review the mechanisms and consequences of permafrost degradation, including its impacts on hydrological, ecological, and engineered systems.
• To provide an overview of remediation measures and argue for a strategic shift from permafrost preservation to adaptation in the face of accelerating climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global (Arctic, Antarctica, Himalayas, Andes, Alps, Tibetan Plateau, Siberia, Canada, Greenland) down to local soil and pore scales.
• Temporal Scale: Paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum), historical records (20th century), and future projections (up to 2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Conceptual and empirical models
  • Process-based and coupled multiphysics frameworks
  • Numerical methods (finite difference, finite element, Material Point Method, mixed finite element schemes, phase-field modelling, peridynamics)
  • Equilibrium models (frost index models, Kudryavtsev model, TTOP model)
  • Statistical models (linking permafrost to topographic and climatic factors)
  • Multiphysical coupled models (Thermo-Hydraulic (TH), Thermo-Mechanical (TM), Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical (THM), Thermo-Hydro-Chemical (THC), Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC))
  • Climate models (Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), CMIP6)
  • CryoGridLite Permafrost Model
  • SFI model
• Data sources:
  • Synthesis of existing scientific literature and research findings
  • Climate records (dating back to the 20th century)
  • Field observations (e.g., temperature and water content)
  • Experimental data from laboratory studies (e.g., on soil properties)
  • Remotely sensed data
  • CRU_CFSR data

Main Results

• Permafrost degradation is driven by complex interactions of mechanical, chemical, thermal, and hydrological factors, with climate change being a primary accelerator.
• Degradation occurs through downward, upward, lateral, and composite thawing mechanisms, leading to progressive thinning and loss of the permafrost layer.
• Thawing significantly alters soil properties: hydraulic conductivity, bulk modulus, shear modulus, and maximum deviatoric stress are highly temperature-dependent, generally decreasing in strength and increasing in conductivity as temperature approaches 0 °C. For example, hydraulic conductivity can increase to ~10⁻⁸ meters per second near -0.20 °C.
• Consequences include increased landslide risk (e.g., Nuussuaq, Greenland; Bondo, Switzerland), destabilization of critical infrastructure, accelerated runoff, thermokarst development, and ground subsidence.
• Permafrost thaw releases large quantities of greenhouse gases (methane, carbon dioxide), creating a positive feedback loop that intensifies global warming. It also poses risks of reintroducing ancient pathogens.
• Traditional engineering remediation techniques (e.g., thermosyphons, insulation, cooling systems) are becoming increasingly expensive, less effective, and unfeasible at the scale and pace of current permafrost degradation.
• Projections indicate severe permafrost loss; for instance, CCSM3 predicted a decline in near-surface permafrost area from 10 million square kilometers in 1999 to 1 million square kilometers by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.
• A strategic shift from permafrost preservation to adaptation is necessary, involving redesigning construction practices, strengthening monitoring, and potentially relocating infrastructure and communities.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, interdisciplinary review of the mechanisms, consequences, and remediation strategies for permafrost degradation.
• Highlights the critical role of temperature-dependent soil properties in permafrost stability and degradation processes.
• Emphasizes the accelerating nature of permafrost degradation and its far-reaching implications, including climate feedback loops and potential health risks from ancient pathogens.
• Argues for a paradigm shift from attempting to prevent permafrost degradation to developing adaptation strategies, given the unfeasibility of large-scale preservation under current climate trends.
• Calls for increased interdisciplinary research, improved monitoring, and innovative integrated solutions to mitigate the vast implications of permafrost thaw.

Funding

G. Scaringi acknowledges support from the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport of the Czech Republic (MSMT) through the ERC CZ grant No. LL2316.

Citation

@article{Baillarget2025Permafrost,
  author = {Baillarget, Doriane and Scaringi, Gianvito},
  title = {Permafrost Degradation: Mechanisms, Effects, and (Im)Possible Remediation},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/land14101949},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land14101949}
}