Carli et al. (2025) Tracing Vegetation Responses to Human Pressure and Climatic Stress: A Case Study from the Agri Valley (Southern Italy)

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Identification

• Journal: Land
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-26
• Authors: Emanuela Carli, Martina Perez, Laura Casella, Giuseppe Miraglia, Francesca Pretto, Gaetano Caricato, Rosa Anna Cifarelli, Achille Palma, Pierangela Angelini
• DOI: 10.3390/land15010048

Research Groups

Researchers associated with studies in the Agri Valley, Basilicata, Italy.

Short Summary

This study investigated vegetation changes in the Agri Valley, Italy, by combining long-term hydroclimatic anomalies with community-weighted Ellenberg indicator values and plant ecological groups, revealing significant climate-driven community shifts with distinct habitat-specific patterns in forests and grasslands.

Objective

• To investigate vegetation changes in the Agri Valley (Basilicata, Italy) in response to projected climate changes, addressing the uncertainty of their effects on Mediterranean vegetation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Agri Valley, Basilicata, Italy, across 318 distinct plots.
• Temporal Scale: 74 years (1951–2024) for hydroclimatic anomalies; vegetation data included 40 resurveys.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: BIGBANG model (for reconstructing long-term hydroclimatic anomalies).
• Data sources: Field observations from 318 vegetation plots (including 40 resurveys), Community-weighted Ellenberg indicator values (EIVs), plant ecological groups, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values.

Main Results

• Significant shifts in several Ellenberg indicator values (EIVs) were observed, exhibiting clear habitat-specific patterns.
• Forests showed decreasing light and increasing moisture EIVs, indicating a higher presence of forest-associated species, although some diagnostic taxa declined.
• Grasslands exhibited increasing aridity, with a growing contribution of dry-grassland species and a decline in winter therophytes.
• Climatic analyses revealed pronounced long-term warming, accelerating after the 1980s, while annual precipitation remained highly variable without a monotonic trend.
• Recent years (2013–2022) were marked by intensified drought, evidenced by declining SPEI values and a higher frequency of dry months (SPEI ≤ −1).
• The convergence of vegetation responses, species turnover, and climatic anomalies strongly supports climate-driven community trajectories.

Contributions

• Provides a multi-indicator framework for effectively detecting early ecological responses to climate change in Mediterranean mountain ecosystems.
• Identifies vulnerable habitats within the Mediterranean region, offering valuable insights for conservation and management strategies.
• Addresses the uncertainty regarding the effects of climate change on Mediterranean vegetation by demonstrating clear climate-driven community trajectories.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Carli2025Tracing,
  author = {Carli, Emanuela and Perez, Martina and Casella, Laura and Miraglia, Giuseppe and Pretto, Francesca and Caricato, Gaetano and Cifarelli, Rosa Anna and Palma, Achille and Angelini, Pierangela},
  title = {Tracing Vegetation Responses to Human Pressure and Climatic Stress: A Case Study from the Agri Valley (Southern Italy)},
  journal = {Land},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/land15010048},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/land15010048}
}