Zhou et al. (2025) Response of Vegetation to Extreme Climate in the Yellow River Basin: Spatiotemporal Patterns, Lag Effects, and Scenario Differences

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Identification

• Journal: Remote Sensing
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-08
• Authors: Shilun Zhou, Feiyang Wang, Ruiting Lyu, Maosheng Liu, Ning Nie
• DOI: 10.3390/rs17243967

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study projected Leaf Area Index (LAI) responses to extreme climatic factors in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2025 to 2065 using CMIP6 outputs under three SSP scenarios. It found a consistent increasing trend in regionally averaged LAI across all scenarios, with significant spatial and scenario-dependent differences in vegetation responses to extreme climates.

Objective

• To examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of Leaf Area Index (LAI) responses to extreme climatic factors in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under future climate scenarios (2025-2065).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yellow River Basin (YRB), with specific focus on arid and semiarid Loess Plateau regions.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections from 2025 to 2065. Historical data used for consistency validation.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs.
• Data sources: CMIP6 outputs under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, historical consistency-validated LAI data, and 26 extreme climate indices.
• Methods: Partial least squares regression, Pearson correlation for time-lag and cumulative effect analyses.

Main Results

• Regionally averaged LAI in the YRB exhibits a consistent increasing trend under all three SSP scenarios.
• Linear rates of LAI increase range from 0.0016 per year to 0.0020 per year (0.0016–0.0020 yr⁻¹).
• The highest LAI values are observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• Clear scenario-dependent spatial differences exist in LAI distribution and vegetation response to extreme climates.
• Lag and cumulative effects of extreme climate on vegetation responses are scenario-dependent and influenced by local hydro-climatic conditions.
• Dominant extreme climate indices regulating LAI variability include annual total wet-day precipitation, frost days, growing season length, summer days, and ice days.
• In arid and semiarid Loess Plateau regions, relatively long lag and cumulative effects imply vegetation vulnerability to delayed or prolonged climatic stress.

Contributions

• Provides novel insights into future spatiotemporal dynamics of LAI responses to extreme climate in the YRB under CMIP6 SSP scenarios.
• Identifies dominant extreme climate indices influencing LAI variability in the YRB.
• Quantifies time-lag and cumulative effects of extreme climate on vegetation dynamics, highlighting regional vulnerabilities.
• Offers region-specific ecological conservation and climate mitigation strategies for the YRB and other vulnerable watersheds.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhou2025Response,
  author = {Zhou, Shilun and Wang, Feiyang and Lyu, Ruiting and Liu, Maosheng and Nie, Ning},
  title = {Response of Vegetation to Extreme Climate in the Yellow River Basin: Spatiotemporal Patterns, Lag Effects, and Scenario Differences},
  journal = {Remote Sensing},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/rs17243967},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17243967}
}