Lapyai et al. (2025) Developing a Composite Hydrological Drought Index Using the VIC Model: Case Study in Northern Thailand

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-16
• Authors: Duangnapha Lapyai, Chakrit Chotamonsak, Somporn Chantara, Atsamon Limsakul
• DOI: 10.3390/w17182732

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study introduces a Composite Hydrological Drought Index (CHDI) for a northern watershed in Thailand, integrating multiple Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model outputs via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to capture the multidimensional complexity of water scarcity. The CHDI demonstrated significant predictive skill in monitoring hydrological drought, effectively capturing seasonal and interannual variability and identifying low-flow events.

Objective

• To develop and evaluate a Composite Hydrological Drought Index (CHDI) that integrates multiple hydrological variables to capture the multidimensional complexity of water scarcity, particularly in data-scarce and climate-sensitive regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: A northern watershed in Thailand.
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal and interannual variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model.
• Data sources: Outputs from the VIC hydrological model (precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, baseflow, and soil moisture layers); observed data from eight hydrological stations for evaluation; low-flow event reports from the National Hydro Informatics Data Center (NHC).

Main Results

• The first principal component (PC1), accounting for over 50% of the total variance, formed the basis for the CHDI and was strongly correlated with precipitation, surface runoff, and surface soil moisture.
• The CHDI demonstrated significant predictive skill, with Pearson’s correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.49 to 0.79 (p < 0.05).
• A maximum Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.63 was achieved.
• F1-scores for drought detection were as high as 0.92.
• The index effectively captured seasonal and interannual variability, including accurate identification of low-flow events.
• Robust performance was observed, particularly under high-flow conditions and in drought classification, though some limitations were noted in complex or anthropogenically influenced sub-catchments.

Contributions

• Introduces a novel Composite Hydrological Drought Index (CHDI) that integrates multiple hydrological variables (precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil moisture) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to address the limitations of single-variable indices.
• Provides a reliable and integrative tool for multidimensional hydrological drought monitoring in data-scarce and climate-sensitive regions, specifically demonstrated in a northern watershed in Thailand.
• Offers a methodology that can support water resource management by accurately identifying seasonal and interannual drought events and low-flow conditions.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Lapyai2025Developing,
  author = {Lapyai, Duangnapha and Chotamonsak, Chakrit and Chantara, Somporn and Limsakul, Atsamon},
  title = {Developing a Composite Hydrological Drought Index Using the VIC Model: Case Study in Northern Thailand},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/w17182732},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w17182732}
}