Sun et al. (2025) Mechanisms of Heavy Rainfall over the Southern Anhui Mountains: Assessment for Disaster Risk

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-08
• Authors: Mingxin Sun, Hongfang Zhu, Dongyong Wang, Yaoming Ma, Wenzhi Zhao
• DOI: 10.3390/w17192906

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and atmospheric circulation mechanisms of heavy rainfall in southern Anhui (2022–2024), identifying key large-scale circulation systems and multi-channel water vapor sources, and developing an optimal power index model for rainstorm disaster risk assessment.

Objective

• To explore the mechanisms supporting extreme precipitation in the southern Anhui region by studying the spatiotemporal characteristics of heavy rainfall events during 2022–2024 and their related atmospheric circulation patterns.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern Anhui region, China.
• Temporal Scale: 2022–2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, Principal Component Analysis, Information Entropy Weight Method, Multiple Regression (specifically, multiple linear regression for a power index model).
• Data sources: High-resolution precipitation data, ERA5 reanalysis dataset, GDAS reanalysis dataset.

Main Results

• Large-scale circulation systems, including the East Asian monsoon (EAM), the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the South Asian high (SAH), and the Tibetan Plateau monsoon (PM), play a decisive role in regulating water vapor flux and convergence in southern Anhui.
• The primary sources of water vapor are Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, the western Pacific, and inland China, with transport occurring through multi-level and multi-channel pathways.
• The uplift effect of mountainous terrain significantly enhances local precipitation.
• The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and zonal index are closely related to the spatiotemporal changes in rainfall and the occurrence of disasters.
• A power index model fitted by multiple linear regression was determined to be the most effective for the assessment of disaster-causing rainstorm events.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and atmospheric circulation mechanisms driving extreme precipitation in southern Anhui.
• Identifies specific large-scale circulation systems and water vapor transport pathways crucial for heavy rainfall in the region.
• Develops and validates an optimal power index model for rainstorm disaster risk assessment, offering a scientific basis for enhancing early warning and disaster prevention capabilities in the context of climate change.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sun2025Mechanisms,
  author = {Sun, Mingxin and Zhu, Hongfang and Wang, Dongyong and Ma, Yaoming and Zhao, Wenzhi},
  title = {Mechanisms of Heavy Rainfall over the Southern Anhui Mountains: Assessment for Disaster Risk},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/w17192906},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w17192906}
}