Tu et al. (2025) Simulation and Parameter Law of HEC-HMS for Multi-Source Flood in Arid Region Based on Three-Dimensional Classification Criteria: A Case Study of Manas River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-14
• Authors: Jinming Tu, Changlu Qiao
• DOI: 10.3390/w17202952

Research Groups

This study optimized the HEC-HMS model and developed a new flood classification method to improve multi-source flood simulation in Northwest Chinese arid inland river basins, demonstrating its suitability with high accuracy and distinct parameter sets for snowmelt, rainstorm, and mixed floods.

Objective

• To improve the accuracy and parameter differentiation of snowmelt, ice melting, rainstorm, and mixed flood simulation in Northwest Chinese arid inland river basins by optimizing the HEC-HMS model and innovating flood classification standards, thereby enhancing complex flood simulation ability and supporting arid area flood prediction.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northwest Chinese arid inland river basins (regional scale).
• Temporal Scale: Historical flood events (36 events analyzed).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modeling System).
• Data sources: Topography data, soil data, land use data, and historical meteorological and hydrological data for 36 flood events.

Main Results

• The developed flood classification method achieved an accuracy of 92%.
• The optimized HEC-HMS model met simulation standards for all three flood types (snowmelt, rainstorm, mixed).
• Simulation errors were within acceptable ranges: flood peak and runoff depth error ≤ ±20%, peak time error < 3 hours.
• The average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was 0.76 (snowmelt: 0.82, rainstorm: 0.76, mixed: 0.70).
• Distinct parameter gradient differences were identified for each flood type:
  • Snowmelt: Curve Number (CN) = 65, Initial Abstraction (Ia) = 20 mm, Storage Coefficient (k) = 0.3.
  • Rainstorm: CN = 80, Ia = 10 mm, k = 0.5.
  • Mixed: Parameters were found to be intermediate between snowmelt and rainstorm types.

Contributions

• Developed an optimized HEC-HMS model suitable for accurate multi-source flood simulation in arid regions.
• Introduced an innovative "meteorology, hydrology, underlying surface" flood classification method.
• Quantified distinct runoff generation-concentration parameters for different flood types, providing a crucial basis for flood forecasting in similar basins.

Funding

Citation

@article{Tu2025Simulation,
  author = {Tu, Jinming and Qiao, Changlu},
  title = {Simulation and Parameter Law of HEC-HMS for Multi-Source Flood in Arid Region Based on Three-Dimensional Classification Criteria: A Case Study of Manas River Basin},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/w17202952},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w17202952}
}