Chivangulula et al. (2025) The Drought Regime in Southern Africa and Recent Climate Change: Long-Term Trends in Climate Elements, Drought Indices and Descriptors

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-22
• Authors: Fernando Maliti Chivangulula, Malik Amraoui, Mário Pereira
• DOI: 10.3390/w17213031

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study assessed long-term climate trends and drought hotspots in Southern Africa (1971-2020) using ERA5 data, revealing widespread increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, and expanding drought risk in agriculturally vital regions.

Objective

• Assess long-term trends in climate elements and parameters relevant to drought regimes in Southern Africa.
• Identify drought hotspots within Southern Africa.
• Relate identified drought hotspots to socioeconomic indicators.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern Africa (SA).
• Temporal Scale: 1971–2020 (50 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Theil–Sen slope estimator, Mann–Kendall statistical significance test, Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Statistically significant trends of increasing temperature and potential evapotranspiration, and decreasing precipitation were observed across almost the entire Southern Africa.
• Increasing drought risk hotspots, as indicated by SPI and SPEI across all timescales, were identified in the north-central rainforest region, and the south and southeast of Southern Africa.
• Decreasing drought risk hotspots were found in the northwest coast, central-west region, and more recently in the northeast.
• Drought descriptor hotspots were identified within the same regions but were of a smaller spatial extent.
• Drought hotspots coincide with regions of moderate-to-high population density and agricultural systems critical for food security and socioeconomic importance.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive long-term trend analysis of climate elements and drought indices across Southern Africa.
• Pinpoints specific drought hotspots and their spatial and temporal evolution within the region.
• Highlights the critical link between climate-induced drought hotspots and regions of high socioeconomic and agricultural importance, offering valuable information for regional management and decision-making.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Chivangulula2025Drought,
  author = {Chivangulula, Fernando Maliti and Amraoui, Malik and Pereira, Mário},
  title = {The Drought Regime in Southern Africa and Recent Climate Change: Long-Term Trends in Climate Elements, Drought Indices and Descriptors},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/w17213031},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w17213031}
}