Rolbiecki et al. (2025) Forecasted Yield Responses of Carrot, Celeriac and Red Beet to Sprinkler Irrigation Under Climate Change in a Highly Water-Deficient Area of Central Poland

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-13
• Authors: S. Rolbiecki, Renata Kuśmierek‐Tomaszewska, J. Żarski, Barbara Jagosz, Roman Rolbiecki
• DOI: 10.3390/w17223239

Research Groups

• Department of Biogeochemistry, Soil Science, Irrigation and Drainage, Bydgoszcz University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland
• Department of Plant Biology and Biotechnology, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Krakow, Poland

Short Summary

This study forecasts the yield responses of carrot, celeriac, and red beet to sprinkler irrigation under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2021–2100 in central Poland. It found that irrigation consistently enhances yields, especially in very dry years, but its relative benefits may decline under more severe climate change (RCP 8.5).

Objective

• To forecast the yield responses of carrot (Daucus carota L.), celeriac (Apium graveolens L.), and red beet (Beta vulgaris L.) to sprinkler irrigation under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the period 2021–2100 in a highly water-deficient area of central Poland.
• To provide insights into the potential benefits of irrigation in mitigating drought-induced yield losses and offer a quantitative basis for evaluating the economic and agronomic rationale of irrigation practices under future climate variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Four counties in central Poland: Gniezno, Słupca, W ˛agrowiec, and Wrze´snia, characterized as a highly water-deficient agricultural region with light to medium-textured soils.
• Temporal Scale: Forecast period 2021–2100, analyzed in decadal increments.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • A linear model relating irrigation-induced yield gains to precipitation deficits during critical water demand periods: Q = q × (Popt − Pact), where Q is yield increment (kg·ha−1), q is yield increase per 1 mm of precipitation deficit (kg·ha−1·mm−1), Popt is optimal precipitation (mm), and Pact is actual precipitation (mm).
  • Ostrom˛ecki method for estimating precipitation totals corresponding to selected probability levels (50% for normal, 25% for medium dry, and 10% for very dry years) and calculating precipitation deficits.
  • Linear regression analysis to describe temporal trends in yield increments over the forecast period.
• Data sources:
  • Climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5.
  • Climate data for simulations: Klimada 2.0 portal.
  • Regression equations for yield increments (Table 1) derived from field experiments evaluating sprinkler irrigation effects on carrot, celeriac, and red beet yields.
  • Optimal precipitation values (Popt) based on long-term field irrigation experiments.

Main Results

• Sprinkler irrigation consistently enhanced yields for all three root vegetables, with the largest increments observed in very dry years, followed by medium dry years, and the smallest in normal years.
• Yield responses to irrigation were generally higher under the moderate RCP 4.5 scenario compared to the more severe RCP 8.5 scenario across most counties and crops.
• Under RCP 8.5, a statistically significant declining temporal trend in irrigation-induced yield increments was observed for all crops across all counties (e.g., carrot yield increments decreased by approximately 1.1 t·ha−1 per decade, p = 0.05).
• Under RCP 4.5, carrot yield increments remained stable, while celeriac and red beet showed slight, statistically insignificant increasing trends in W ˛agrowiec county.
• Carrot exhibited the greatest variability in yield response to irrigation, followed by red beet, with celeriac showing the lowest variability. The RCP 8.5 scenario consistently generated greater variability than RCP 4.5.
• Precipitation deficits during critical water demand periods varied by species (smallest for carrot, intermediate for celeriac, largest for red beet) and were generally lower under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5.

Contributions

• Provides quantitative, long-term forecasts (2021–2100) of sprinkler irrigation effectiveness for key root vegetables (carrot, celeriac, red beet) under contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in a highly water-deficient region of central Poland.
• Offers critical insights into the future viability and limitations of irrigation as a climate adaptation strategy, demonstrating that while irrigation is essential, its relative benefits may diminish under more severe warming (RCP 8.5).
• Highlights the need for integrated adaptation approaches combining efficient irrigation with broader soil and crop management innovations to ensure long-term resilience and profitability of vegetable production.
• Establishes a quantitative basis for future economic and agronomic evaluations of irrigation investments and water management policies in the context of climate change.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Citation

@article{Rolbiecki2025Forecasted,
  author = {Rolbiecki, S. and Kuśmierek‐Tomaszewska, Renata and Żarski, J. and Jagosz, Barbara and Rolbiecki, Roman},
  title = {Forecasted Yield Responses of Carrot, Celeriac and Red Beet to Sprinkler Irrigation Under Climate Change in a Highly Water-Deficient Area of Central Poland},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/w17223239},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w17223239}
}