Pınarlık (2025) Climograph-Supported Assessment of Temperature–Precipitation Trends Using Classical and Innovative Statistical Methods in the Yeşilırmak Basin, Türkiye

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-13
• Authors: Murat Pınarlık
• DOI: 10.3390/w17243532

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzed annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation trends in Türkiye's Yeşilırmak Basin over 38 years, revealing statistically significant warming, particularly in summer and autumn, and demonstrating the superior sensitivity of Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) for trend detection compared to Mann–Kendall (MK).

Objective

• To analyze annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation trends in the Yeşilırmak Basin, Türkiye, using data from seven meteorological stations over a 38-year period (1975–2012).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yeşilırmak Basin, Türkiye, utilizing data from seven meteorological stations.
• Temporal Scale: 38-year period (1975–2012).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Randomness Test, Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA).
• Data sources: Observational data from seven meteorological stations.

Main Results

• Statistically significant warming trends were detected at confidence levels above 90%, particularly during summer and autumn.
• Autumn temperatures increased by approximately 0.03–0.05 °C per year (Z = 2.3–2.5) at most stations.
• Precipitation exhibited moderate increases at certain stations, while overall patterns remained steady.
• Climograph analysis for Tokat and Dökmetepe stations showed May precipitation to be 40–50% higher than in winter, and August precipitation nearly 89% lower than in May.
• Temperatures rose by approximately 20 °C from January to July, reflecting continental climatic characteristics.
• While MK and ITA yielded largely consistent results, ITA proved advantageous in weak or borderline cases by detecting structural patterns across value zones.
• ITA identified additional trends in approximately 83% of cases where MK detected no significant change (25 out of 30 seasonal comparisons).
• ITA outcomes were fully consistent in over 92% of statistically significant MK results, reinforcing its robustness.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis and quantification of long-term annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation trends in the Yeşilırmak Basin, Türkiye.
• Demonstrates the enhanced capability and robustness of the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method in detecting weak or borderline trends compared to the traditional Mann–Kendall (MK) test.
• Characterizes seasonal climatic patterns within the basin, highlighting specific precipitation and temperature variations.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Pınarlık2025ClimographSupported,
  author = {Pınarlık, Murat},
  title = {Climograph-Supported Assessment of Temperature–Precipitation Trends Using Classical and Innovative Statistical Methods in the Yeşilırmak Basin, Türkiye},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/w17243532},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243532}
}