Emelina et al. (2025) Comparative analysis of drought indices to assess drought conditions in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrometeorological research and forecasting
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-10
• Authors: S. V. Emelina, V.M. Khan
• DOI: 10.37162/2618-9631-2025-4-144-152

Research Groups

North Eurasian Climate Centre (inferred as a key stakeholder/beneficiary)

Short Summary

This study compares the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for assessing extreme drought frequency in agricultural regions of European Russia and Central Asia from 1991-2020, finding SPEI to have slightly higher correlation with observed soil moisture.

Objective

• To evaluate and compare the performance of the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in assessing extreme drought frequency in agricultural regions of the European part of Russia and Central Asia, validating them against observed soil moisture data.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Agricultural regions of the European part of Russia and Central Asia.
• Temporal Scale: 1991 to 2020 (30 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).
• Data sources: Observed soil moisture data (for validation).

Main Results

• Statistical analysis of droughts based on HTC and SPEI over the study period demonstrates similar results.
• SPEI generally exhibits slightly higher correlation coefficients with observed soil moisture data compared to HTC.

Contributions

• Comprehensive comparative analysis of HTC and SPEI for drought assessment in a critical agricultural region.
• Empirical validation of both indices against observed soil moisture data, providing insights into their relative accuracy.
• Offers practical recommendations for the operational and research application of these drought indices by regional climate centers.

Funding

Citation

@article{Emelina2025Comparative,
  author = {Emelina, S. V. and Khan, V.M.},
  title = {Comparative analysis of drought indices to assess drought conditions in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia},
  journal = {Hydrometeorological research and forecasting},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.37162/2618-9631-2025-4-144-152},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.37162/2618-9631-2025-4-144-152}
}