Runge et al. (2025) Climate vulnerability of Earth’s terrestrial biomes

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-05
• Authors: Runge, Katharina, Averill, Colin, Lauber, Thomas, Koch, Tanja N., Maynard, Daniel S., Routh, Devin, van den Hoogen, Johan, Zohner, Constantin, Crowther, Tom
• DOI: 10.3929/ethz-c-000786113

Research Groups

[Not explicitly stated in the provided text.]

Short Summary

This study trains machine learning models on global biome distributions using soil and climate data to accurately capture contemporary biome-climate envelopes (BCEs). It then predicts how climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) will alter these BCEs, finding significant shifts and uncertainties across the terrestrial surface by 2080, with poleward boundary movements, a shrinking tundra, and expanding drylands.

Objective

• To understand how changes in climate might alter global biome-climate envelopes (BCEs) under different climate change scenarios, identifying regions where future conditions may stress existing vegetation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global terrestrial surface.
• Temporal Scale: Contemporary conditions and future projections up to 2080.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Machine learning models.
• Data sources: Global distribution of Earth’s biomes, soil characteristics, and climate data (current and future projections under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios).

Main Results

• Machine learning models accurately capture contemporary biome-climate envelopes (BCEs) with 90% accuracy.
• Between 11% and 17% of the terrestrial surface is projected to experience a change in BCE by 2080 under climate change scenarios.
• Between 16% and 19% of the terrestrial surface has a highly uncertain BCE trajectory over the coming decades.
• BCE boundaries generally shift poleward.
• The tundra BCE is projected to shrink by up to 47% under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
• Various dryland BCEs are projected to increase overall under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
• The study identifies specific regions where changing climate conditions might create stressful local environments for currently existing vegetation.

Contributions

• Provides a quantitative assessment of future global biome-climate envelope shifts and associated uncertainties using machine learning.
• Offers insights into the potential vulnerability of different biomes (e.g., tundra, drylands) to climate change.
• Identifies specific geographic regions where climate-induced stress on existing vegetation is likely, informing climate-smart restoration and sustainable ecosystem management efforts.

Funding

[Not explicitly stated in the provided text.]

Citation

@article{Runge2025Climate,
  author = {Runge, Katharina and Averill, Colin and Lauber, Thomas and Koch, Tanja N. and Maynard, Daniel S. and Routh, Devin and van den Hoogen, Johan and Zohner, Constantin and Crowther, Tom},
  title = {Climate vulnerability of Earth’s terrestrial biomes},
  journal = {Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3929/ethz-c-000786113},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000786113}
}