Beobide-Arsuaga et al. (2025) Increasing central and northern European summer heatwave intensity due to forced changes in internal variability

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Identification

• Journal: Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Beobide-Arsuaga , Goratz, Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; id_orcid0000-0002-0008-5943, Barkhordarian , Armineh, Olonscheck , Dirk, Baehr , Johanna
• DOI: 10.3929/ethz-c-000786950

Research Groups

Not available from the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigates how forced changes in internal variability under global warming will affect European summer heatwaves, finding that it intensifies heatwaves in central and northern Europe due to increased moisture limitations, while weakening them in southern Europe due to reduced extreme temperature variability in a stable moisture-depleted environment.

Objective

• To determine the effects of forced changes in internal variability on European summer heatwave intensity and variability under global warming.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: European continent, specifically differentiating between central and northern Europe, and southern Europe.
• Temporal Scale: Projections for future summer heatwaves under global warming, building on observations from "recent years".

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Five single-model initial-condition large ensembles.
• Data sources: Climate model output from large ensembles.

Main Results

• Forced changes in internal variability are projected to intensify central and northern European summer heatwaves.
• Central and northern Europe will experience frequent moisture limitations, enhancing land-atmosphere feedback and increasing heatwave intensity and variability.
• Forced changes in internal variability will contribute to weakening southern European summer heatwaves.
• Southern Europe is projected to face a more stable moisture-depleted environment that reduces extreme temperature variability and heatwave intensity.
• Adaptation strategies in southern Europe may primarily focus on increasing mean temperatures, while central and northern Europe will also require adaptation to increased temperature variability.

Contributions

• Quantifies the previously unknown effects of forced changes in internal variability on European summer heatwaves.
• Reveals a differential impact of internal variability across Europe, intensifying heatwaves in central and northern regions and weakening them in southern regions.
• Highlights the role of moisture limitations and land-atmosphere feedback in driving these regional differences.
• Provides critical insights for region-specific climate change adaptation strategies, emphasizing the need to consider temperature variability in central and northern Europe.

Funding

Not available from the provided text.

Citation

@article{BeobideArsuaga2025Increasing,
  author = {Beobide-Arsuaga , Goratz and Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; id_orcid0000-0002-0008-5943 and Barkhordarian , Armineh and Olonscheck , Dirk and Baehr , Johanna},
  title = {Increasing central and northern European summer heatwave intensity due to forced changes in internal variability},
  journal = {Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3929/ethz-c-000786950},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000786950}
}