Raymond et al. (2025) Distinct Favored Regions for Historical Record-Setting and Future Record-Breaking Humid Heat

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-29
• Authors: Raymond, Colin, Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura, Thompson, Vikki, van der Wiel, Karin
• DOI: 10.3929/ethz-c-000788365

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study globally identifies record-setting humid-heat days across 216 regions and assesses the likelihood of these records being broken under present-day climate forcing, revealing that humid-heat anomalies are most intense and concentrated in the deep tropics and arid subtropics, with specific regions like the eastern United States, Australia, and eastern China being particularly vulnerable to new extremes.

Objective

• To identify record-setting humid-heat days for 216 global regions and assess the likelihood of these records being broken even under present-day climate forcing, addressing the limited understanding of past extremes and their implications for future possibilities.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, analyzing 216 distinct regions.
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis of past extremes using reanalyses, and assessment of near-term future possibilities under present-day climate forcing using climate model ensembles.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Large climate-model ensembles.
• Data sources: Several reanalyses (e.g., ERA5 mentioned) as a historical catalogue, and observed record-setting days.

Main Results

• Humid-heat anomalies are most intense, and most seasonally and interannually concentrated, in the deep tropics and arid subtropics, a pattern distinct from large temperature anomalies.
• Many of the top humid-heat events identified have received little to no prior attention.
• The eastern United States is highly susceptible to record-breaking humid heat, with modest current records (inferred annual exceedance probability >1%) contrasting with numerous simulated large-anomaly days.
• Australia and eastern China are also prone to locally exceptional humid-heat episodes, with over 40% of ensemble members simulating events exceeding the ERA5-based distribution maximum.
• Model biases and the significant impact of observed record-setting days on estimated return periods (changing by >2.5 times in half of regions) underscore the value of a joint observation/model perspective for understanding humid heat.

Contributions

• Provides the first global analysis specifically focused on the most extreme humid-heat-anomaly events.
• Aids in evaluating the plausibility of as-yet-unseen extreme humid-heat events.
• Identifies specific regions of concern for humid heat that might otherwise be overlooked and underprepared.
• Offers a framework for gauging regionally specific correlations between humid-heat event magnitudes and societal impacts.
• Emphasizes the critical value of a joint observation/model approach for a comprehensive understanding of humid heat extremes.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Raymond2025Distinct,
  author = {Raymond, Colin and Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura and Thompson, Vikki and van der Wiel, Karin},
  title = {Distinct Favored Regions for Historical Record-Setting and Future Record-Breaking Humid Heat},
  journal = {Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3929/ethz-c-000788365},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000788365}
}