Herrmann et al. (2025) Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere

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Identification

• Journal: Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-06
• Authors: Herrmann, Michael, Weber, Helga, Brönnimann, Stefan, Martius, Olivia, Steinfeld, Daniel
• DOI: 10.3929/ethz-c-000789070

Research Groups

Information not available from the provided text.

Short Summary

This study statistically links atmospheric blocks to extreme fire weather and observed fires across seasons from 1979 to 2020, finding that blocks substantially increase the odds of extreme fire weather and are significantly linked to observed fires in Arctic regions during summer.

Objective

• To statistically link atmospheric blocks to extreme fire weather and observed fires across seasons from 1979 to 2020.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern Hemisphere, with specific focus on areas where blocks occur regularly, latitudes north of 50° N, and Arctic regions.
• Temporal Scale: 42 years (1979 to 2020), analyzed across seasons.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical analysis based on co-location and odds ratio statistics.
• Data sources: Extreme fire weather indices and observed fire data.

Main Results

• A substantial portion of extreme fire weather co-occurs with atmospheric blocks.
• In regions with regular block occurrence, blocks increase the odds of extreme fire weather by a factor of 4–5, with local increases up to 30-fold.
• The statistical link between blocks and extreme fire weather is more pronounced at latitudes north of 50° N, exhibiting regional and seasonal variability.
• A significant link was identified between atmospheric blocks and observed fires in Arctic regions during summer.

Contributions

• Reveals novel statistical links between atmospheric blocks and wildfire danger.
• Quantifies the increased odds of extreme fire weather associated with atmospheric blocks across the Northern Hemisphere over a multi-decadal period.

Funding

Information not available from the provided text.

Citation

@article{Herrmann2025Atmospheric,
  author = {Herrmann, Michael and Weber, Helga and Brönnimann, Stefan and Martius, Olivia and Steinfeld, Daniel},
  title = {Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere},
  journal = {Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3929/ethz-c-000789070},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000789070}
}