Flaounas et al. (2025) Dynamics, predictability, impacts and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023)

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-24
• Authors: Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, M. Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Πλάτων Πατλάκας, Michael Armand Sprenger, Iris Thurnherr
• DOI: 10.3929/ethz-c-000793761

Research Groups

Not explicitly detailed in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study comprehensively analyzes Storm Daniel, a catastrophic medicane in September 2023, linking its development, predictability, and extreme impacts (precipitation, floods, sea waves) in Greece and Libya to large-scale atmospheric circulation, anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, and potential climate change influences.

Objective

• To conduct a comprehensive analysis of Storm Daniel, linking its cyclone system with hazardous weather conditions relevant to extreme precipitation, floods, and significant sea wave activity in Greece and Libya.
• To examine Storm Daniel's predictability in different development stages and draw connections with previous case studies.
• To assess the capacity of numerical weather prediction models to capture such extreme precipitation events.
• To investigate potential links between Storm Daniel's impacts and climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Central Mediterranean Sea, Greece, Libya, Eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, continental Europe.
• Temporal Scale: September 2023 (duration of Storm Daniel); predictability lead times of approximately 4 days.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Numerical weather prediction models (specific models not named).
• Data sources: Not explicitly detailed, but implied from analysis of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and sea surface temperatures (likely satellite, reanalysis, and observational data).

Main Results

• Storm Daniel initially developed as an intense Mediterranean cyclone, causing significant socioeconomic impacts in Greece, before evolving into a tropical-like storm (medicane) that made landfall in Libya, becoming likely the most catastrophic and lethal weather event documented in the region.
• The cyclone formation exhibited low predictability (around 4 days lead time), while its landfall in Libya was more predictable.
• Numerical weather prediction models successfully captured the extreme character of precipitation and flooding in both Greece and Libya, providing crucial information for imminent flood events.
• Large-scale atmospheric circulation was the primary driver of extreme precipitation, drawing substantial water vapor from the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and continental Europe.
• The intensification of Storm Daniel was likely driven by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, which enhanced evaporation.
• The impacts of Storm Daniel are consistent with human-driven climate change, although the exceptionality of its medicane phase complicates direct comparisons with other cyclones.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of a historically catastrophic medicane (Storm Daniel), linking its meteorological characteristics to its devastating socioeconomic impacts across two distinct regions.
• Offers insights into the predictability of Mediterranean cyclones and medicanes at different developmental stages.
• Evaluates the performance of numerical weather prediction models in capturing extreme precipitation and flooding events associated with such intense systems.
• Identifies key moisture sources and the role of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the intensification of a medicane.
• Contextualizes a major weather disaster within the framework of human-driven climate change, while acknowledging the unique characteristics of the event.

Funding

Not explicitly detailed in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Flaounas2025Dynamics,
  author = {Flaounas, Emmanouil and Dafis, Stavros and Davolio, Silvio and Faranda, Davide and Ferrarin, Christian and Hartmuth, Katharina and Hochman, Assaf and Koutroulis, Aristeidis and Khodayar, Samira and Miglietta, M. and Pantillon, Florian and Πατλάκας, Πλάτων and Sprenger, Michael Armand and Thurnherr, Iris},
  title = {Dynamics, predictability, impacts and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023)},
  journal = {Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3929/ethz-c-000793761},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000793761}
}