Master’s Program in Disaster Management et al. (2025) Analysis of Meteorological–Hydrological Drought Propagation for the Development of a Drought Early Warning System in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY): A Case Study of the 2023 El Niño Event

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Current Science Research and Review
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-22
• Authors: Master’s Program in Disaster Management, UPN “Veteran” Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Yana Arifin, Yohana Noradika Maharani, Tedy Agung Cahyadi
• DOI: 10.47191/ijcsrr/v8-i12-52

Research Groups

• Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG).
• Regional research entities within the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY), Indonesia.

Short Summary

This study analyzes the spatiotemporal propagation of the 2023 El Niño-induced drought in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, identifying a clear progression from meteorological to hydrological stages. The research quantifies specific time lags between drought types, providing a framework for regional early warning systems.

Objective

• To examine the spatiotemporal influence of the 2023 El Niño on drought conditions in the DIY Province and analyze the propagation stages of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY), Indonesia, including the regencies of Bantul, Gunungkidul, Kulon Progo, and northern/central districts.
• Temporal Scale: April 2023 to October 2023 (covering the onset and peak of the El Niño-driven dry season).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for meteorological drought; Groundwater Availability Index (KAT) for agricultural drought; Hydrological Drought Index (HDI/IKH) for hydrological drought.
• Data sources: Rainfall observations from 122 rain gauges and 3 BMKG stations; reservoir volume data (Q80) for hydrological assessment.

Main Results

• Meteorological Drought: First detected in April 2023 in southern regencies (Bantul, Gunungkidul, Kulon Progo) and expanded northward by May 2023; it appeared 1–2 months after the initial rainfall deficit.
• Agricultural Drought: Emerged in June 2023, characterized by KAT values dropping below 40% of field capacity, representing a 2–3 month lag from the meteorological onset.
• Hydrological Drought: Reached its peak in October 2023, with reservoir volumes falling below 50% at Q80, occurring with a 5–6 month lag relative to the initial rainfall deficit.
• Spatial Dynamics: Drought conditions originated in the southern and western parts of the province before migrating toward central and northern regions.

Contributions

• The study establishes a specific temporal sequence for drought propagation in the DIY region, quantifying the transition times between meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological phases.
• It provides empirical evidence for the necessity of an Integrated Drought Early Warning System that can issue alerts 3–6 months before hydrological conditions become critical.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{MastersPrograminDisasterManagement2025Analysis,
  author = {Master’s Program in Disaster Management, UPN “Veteran” Yogyakarta, Indonesia and Arifin, Yana and Maharani, Yohana Noradika and Master’s Program in Disaster Management, UPN “Veteran” Yogyakarta, Indonesia and Cahyadi, Tedy Agung},
  title = {Analysis of Meteorological–Hydrological Drought Propagation for the Development of a Drought Early Warning System in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY): A Case Study of the 2023 El Niño Event},
  journal = {International Journal of Current Science Research and Review},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.47191/ijcsrr/v8-i12-52},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.47191/ijcsrr/v8-i12-52}
}

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