García-Maroto et al. (2025) Snow cover over the Iberian mountains in km-scale global climate simulations: evaluation and projected changes

Identification

• Journal: arXiv (Cornell University)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohíno, L. Durán, Álvaro González-Cervera, Xabier Pedruzo‐Bagazgoitia
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2512.01493

Research Groups

Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán, Álvaro González-Cervera, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia (authors involved in the EU-NextGEMS project).

Short Summary

This study evaluates the IFS-FESOM storm-resolving model's performance in simulating historical seasonal snow cover over Iberian mountains and projects significant future reductions in snow season length under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, primarily due to rising temperatures and decreased precipitation.

Objective

• To assess the performance of the IFS-FESOM storm-resolving model in simulating historical seasonal snow cover in the main Iberian mountain ranges.
• To project the effects of climate change on snow cover in these regions under the SSP3-7.0 scenario.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Iberian mountain ranges; km-scale global climate simulations with horizontal resolutions finer than 10 km.
• Temporal Scale: Historical seasonal snow cover; future climate change projections under the SSP3-7.0 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: IFS-FESOM (a storm-resolving global climate model).
• Data sources: Four high-resolution reanalysis-based products, satellite observations, and in situ observations.

Main Results

• The IFS-FESOM model exhibits a positive bias in the length of the snow cover season and the number of snowfall days compared to reference data.
• Despite biases, the model successfully represents key features of snow climatology, including its elevation dependency, seasonal cycle, and mean covered area, within the uncertainty range of reference data.
• Projections under the SSP3-7.0 scenario indicate a marked reduction in the snow season across almost all of Iberia.
• The greatest reductions in snow season length are projected for low- to mid-elevations and the southernmost Iberian mountain ranges.
• These projected changes are primarily linked to reduced snowfall days caused by rising temperatures, and secondarily by decreasing precipitation, particularly in southern and Mediterranean sectors.

Contributions

• Demonstrates the capability of storm-resolving simulations to provide high-quality local climate projections of snow information in complex terrain without the need for regional downscaling.
• Provides a comprehensive evaluation of the IFS-FESOM model's performance for snow cover simulation in a complex Mediterranean mountainous region.

Funding

• Simons Foundation
• EU-NextGEMS project

Citation

@article{GarcíaMaroto2025Snow,
  author = {García-Maroto, Diego and Mohíno, Elsa and Durán, L. and González-Cervera, Álvaro and Pedruzo‐Bagazgoitia, Xabier},
  title = {Snow cover over the Iberian mountains in km-scale global climate simulations: evaluation and projected changes},
  journal = {arXiv (Cornell University)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2512.01493},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2512.01493}
}

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