Grünig et al. (2025) Data from: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21^st century

Identification

• Journal: Open MIND
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-21
• Authors: Grünig, Marc, Rammer, Werner, Senf, Cornelius, Albrich, Katharina, André, Frédéric, Augustynczik, Andrey Lessa Derci, Baumann, Martin, Bohn, Friedrich, Bouwman, Meike, Bugmann, Harald, Collalti, Alessio, Cristal, Irina, Dalmonech, Daniela, De Coligny, Francois, Dobor, Laura, Dollinger, Christina, Espelta, Josep Maria, Forrester, David, Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi, González-Olabarria, José Ramón, Hiltner, Ulrike, Hlásny, Tomáš, Honkaniemi, Juha, Huber, Nica, Jonard, Mathieu, Jönsson, Anna Maria, Kunstler, Georges, Lagergren, Fredrik, Lindner, Marcus, Mina, Marco, Moos, Christine, Morin, Xavier, Muys, Bart, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Nieberg, Mats, Patacca, Marco, Peltoniemi, Mikko, Reyer, Christopher, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, Storms, Ilié, Thom, Dominik, Toïgo, Maude, Seidl, Rupert
• DOI: 10.5061/dryad.tb2rbp0dv

Research Groups

• Technical University of Munich (Germany)
• Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Switzerland)
• Natural Resources Institute Finland (Finland)
• UCLouvain (Belgium)
• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
• Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Germany)
• Wageningen University & Research (Netherlands)
• ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
• Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in the Mediterranean (Spain)
• Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Spain)
• Université Montpellier (France)
• Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Czech Republic)
• Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (Spain)
• CSIRO Environment (Australia)
• Lund University (Sweden)
• Université Grenoble Alpes (France)
• European Forest Institute Bonn (Germany)
• Eurac Research (Italy)
• Bern University of Applied Sciences (Switzerland)
• KU Leuven (Belgium)
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany)
• Technische Universität Dresden (Germany)
• Université Bordeaux-I (France)

Short Summary

This study simulates future forest disturbance regimes across Europe using a deep learning-based framework, projecting a more than doubling of disturbed forest area by the end of the 21st century, primarily driven by wildfires, which will significantly alter Europe's forest demography.

Objective

• To simulate and quantify future forest disturbance regimes (wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms) across Europe throughout the 21st century under various climate change scenarios, and assess their impact on forest demography.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Europe-wide simulations with raw outputs at 100 meter by 100 meter resolution, aggregated to 10 kilometer, 25 kilometer, and 50 kilometer hexagons for analysis.
• Temporal Scale: Simulations cover the entire 21st century, with outputs at 10-year timesteps and summed layers at 40 and 80 years (2060 and 2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Deep learning-based simulation framework, specifically the Spatially Explicit Vegetation Dynamics (SVD) model.
  • Integrated disturbance modules for fire, wind, bark beetle (bbtl), and management (mgmt).
  • Deep Neural Networks (DNN) for climate compression and driving SVD.
• Data sources:
  • Climate data: Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections from CORDEX, bias-corrected, based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) (ICHECECEARTH, MPIMMPIESMLR, NCCNorESM1M) under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: historical, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Variables include temperature [°C], precipitation [millimeter], vapor pressure deficit (VPD) [kilopascal], and radiation [watt per square meter].
  • Initial forest states: Derived from aggregated data sources, including canopy height, vegetation stacks, and forest state lookups.
  • Soil data: Initial soil conditions including soil depth [millimeter], sand content [%], water holding capacity (WHC) [millimeter], and plant available nitrogen [kilogram per hectare per year].
  • Disturbance event series: External event series for wind and fire, and input data for bark beetle and management modules, sourced from Zenodo records.
  • Geographic Information System (GIS) data: Various shapefiles and raster layers for masks, digital elevation models (DEM), and reference grids across Europe.
  • Training data: Local forest simulations from a harmonized simulation database converted to deep neural network training data.

Main Results

• Forest disturbances are projected to continuously increase throughout the 21st century across Europe.
• Under an unabated climate change scenario (RCP8.5), the total disturbed forest area is projected to more than double relative to the recent past.
• Wildfires are identified as the primary driver of this projected increase in future disturbance, significantly contributing to the overall change.
• The changing disturbance regimes will lead to a substantial increase in young forests, fundamentally altering the demographic structure of European forests.

Contributions

• Provides the first high-resolution (100 meter), Europe-wide simulations of future forest disturbance regimes (wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms) under climate change using a novel deep learning-based framework.
• Quantifies the projected increase in disturbed forest area across Europe, highlighting the dominant role of wildfires in future disturbance dynamics.
• Demonstrates the profound implications of these changes for forest demography, carbon storage, and habitat value, emphasizing the need for disturbances to be a priority in forest policy and management.
• Offers a comprehensive, publicly available dataset and code for future research and scenario analysis of forest disturbances in Europe.

Funding

• Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (Project ID: 101000574)
• H2020 European Research Council (Project ID: 101001905)
• Environment and Nature Conservation Future Forest (Project ID: 67KI21002D)
• ForestPaths project (Project ID: 101056755)

Citation

@article{Grünig2025Data,
  author = {Grünig, Marc and Rammer, Werner and Senf, Cornelius and Albrich, Katharina and André, Frédéric and Augustynczik, Andrey Lessa Derci and Baumann, Martin and Bohn, Friedrich and Bouwman, Meike and Bugmann, Harald and Collalti, Alessio and Cristal, Irina and Dalmonech, Daniela and De Coligny, Francois and Dobor, Laura and Dollinger, Christina and Espelta, Josep Maria and Forrester, David and Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi and González-Olabarria, José Ramón and Hiltner, Ulrike and Hlásny, Tomáš and Honkaniemi, Juha and Huber, Nica and Jonard, Mathieu and Jönsson, Anna Maria and Kunstler, Georges and Lagergren, Fredrik and Lindner, Marcus and Mina, Marco and Moos, Christine and Morin, Xavier and Muys, Bart and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Nieberg, Mats and Patacca, Marco and Peltoniemi, Mikko and Reyer, Christopher and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Storms, Ilié and Thom, Dominik and Toïgo, Maude and Seidl, Rupert},
  title = {Data from: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21<sup>st</sup> century},
  journal = {Open MIND},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.5061/dryad.tb2rbp0dv},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.tb2rbp0dv}
}