Biella et al. (2025) The 2022 drought needs to be a turning point for European drought risk management

Identification

• Journal: Natural hazards and earth system sciences
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-12
• Authors: Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ioniță, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Andrijana Todorović, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, María Carmen Llasat, Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne F. Van Loon, Doris E. Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean‐Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Margrit Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, Lena M. Tallaksen
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025

Research Groups

• Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden
• Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
• Paleoclimate Dynamics Group, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
• Earth Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University and Research, the Netherlands
• Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network, International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS)
• Various contributing departments from the University of Oslo, University of Barcelona, Technical University of Berlin, and the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.

Short Summary

This study analyzes the 2022 European drought by linking climate indices with a continent-wide survey of 481 water managers to evaluate sectoral impacts and management effectiveness. The findings reveal that while drought risk is perceived to be increasing across Europe, current management remains largely reactive and fragmented, prompting a call for a legally binding European Drought Directive.

Objective

• To assess the spatial and temporal evolution of the 2022 European drought and its sectoral impacts.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of current drought risk management measures across different European regions.
• To determine if drought risk is perceived as increasing by practitioners and how management strategies are evolving.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental Europe, with specific data from 30 countries and regional spotlights on Italy and the Catalonia region of Spain.
• Temporal Scale: Primary focus on the 2022 drought event (winter 2021 through autumn 2022), contextualized within the historical period of 1950–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models and Indices used: Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiraion Index (SPEI) at multiple accumulation scales (SPEI-1, SPEI-3, SPEI-6, and SPEI-12) to characterize meteorological and hydrological drought.
• Data sources:
  • Climate data: Monthly precipitation, mean air temperature, and potential evapotranspiration from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS v. 4.07 dataset (0.5° grid).
  • Management data: A 19-question survey (translated into 19 languages) targeting water managers, yielding 481 valid responses.
• Classification Frameworks: Management measures were reclassified using the IPCC AR6 GAMI typology and the European Commission’s 2012 Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s Water Resources.

Main Results

• Hazard Severity: The 2022 event was the most extreme summer drought in Europe since 1954, with record-breaking SPEI-6 values in northern Spain and southwestern France.
• Risk Perception: 87% of water managers believe drought risk is increasing, particularly in the ecosystem, energy, and industrial sectors.
• Impact Disparities: Southern Europe experienced the longest impacts (exceeding 9 months), while Northern Europe saw milder effects. Agriculture, Forestry, and Public Water Supply were the most severely impacted sectors.
• Management Gaps: 27% of measures focused on increasing water supply (e.g., new sources), while only 19% focused on demand reduction, contradicting European Commission recommendations to prioritize demand-side management.
• Preparedness vs. Awareness: While awareness has increased significantly since the 2018 drought, institutional preparedness and response effectiveness have not improved at the same rate.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, multi-country empirical link between physical drought indicators (SPEI) and the lived experience/actions of water management professionals.
• Identifies a "strategy gap" in European water policy, where reactive crisis management prevails over proactive risk reduction.
• Formulates a policy roadmap for a "European Drought Directive," advocating for a shift from force majeure exemptions to systemic, environment-centered, and legally binding risk management.

Funding

• European Union’s Horizon 2020 (Grant Nos. 101037293 [ICISK], 956396 [EDIPI], 820712 [RECEIPTS]).
• European Union’s Horizon Europe (Grant Nos. 101121192 [MedEWSa], 101003876 [CLINT], 101003469 [XAIDA]).
• European Research Council (ERC) PerfectSTORM (Grant No. 948601).
• Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) UK (Grant Nos. NE/Y006208/1, NE/X012727/1).
• Swedish Research Council (FORMAS, Contract No. 942-2015-1123).
• Additional support from the Romania National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Project CExForD, No. 760074/23.05.2023).

Citation

@article{Biella20252022,
  author = {Biella, Riccardo and Shyrokaya, Anastasiya and Ioniță, Monica and Vignola, Raffaele and Sutanto, Samuel Jonson and Todorović, Andrijana and Teutschbein, Claudia and Cid, Daniela and Llasat, María Carmen and Alencar, Pedro Henrique Lima and Matanó, Alessia and Ridolfi, Elena and Moccia, Benedetta and Pechlivanidis, Ilias and Loon, Anne F. Van and Wendt, Doris E. and Stenfors, Elin and Russo, Fabio and Vidal, Jean‐Philippe and Barker, Lucy and Brito, Mariana Madruga de and Lam, Marleen and Bláhová, Monika and Trambauer, Patricia and Hamed, Raed and McGrane, Scott J. and Ceola, Serena and Bakke, Sigrid Jørgensen and Krakovska, Svitlana and Nagavciuc, Viorica and Tootoonchi, Faranak and Baldassarre, Giuliano Di and Hauswirth, Sandra Margrit and Maskey, Shreedhar and Zubkovych, Svitlana and Wens, Marthe and Tallaksen, Lena M.},
  title = {The 2022 drought needs to be a turning point for European drought risk management},
  journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025}
}

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