Jrayj De Melo (2025) Rain Upstream, Floods Downstream: the Case of the Uruguai River in Uruguaiana-Rs

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Identification

• Journal: Open MIND
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-28
• Authors: Jrayj De Melo, Cassiane
• DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17743431

Research Groups

• UNIGAIA – Grupo de Ações Interdisciplinares Aplicadas, Universidade Federal do Pampa (UNIPAMPA)

Short Summary

This study investigates the relationship between upstream management in the Uruguay River basin and downstream flood events in Uruguaiana, Brazil. It found a strong correlation between upstream rainfall volumes and river level rise in Uruguaiana, with response times ranging from two to four days.

Objective

• To investigate the relationship between management practices in upstream municipalities of the Uruguay River basin (e.g., Itaqui, São Borja, Garruchos) and flood events observed in Uruguaiana, Rio Grande do Sul.
• To understand the hydrological mechanisms governing river level elevation and flood occurrences, considering both natural and anthropogenic factors such as climate change, land use, and environmental changes in the basin.
• To provide technical and scientific support for improving monitoring, forecasting, and risk management systems, contributing to public policy formulation and adaptation/resilience strategies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Uruguay River basin, focusing on upstream municipalities (Itaqui, São Borja, Garruchos) and the downstream municipality of Uruguaiana, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
• Temporal Scale: Time series analysis of hydrometeorological data, identifying hydrological response times between two and four days.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical analysis techniques including Pearson correlation, linear regression, and time lag analysis. Data processing and modeling were performed using statistical software such as R and Python.
• Data sources: Hydrometeorological data from the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), including time series of rainfall occurrences and fluviometric levels.

Main Results

• A strong correlation was identified between upstream rainfall volumes and the rise in river levels in Uruguaiana.
• Hydrological response times varied between two and four days, depending on the geographical location of the rainfall events.
• The findings underscore the critical importance of integrated watershed monitoring and the implementation of early warning systems for risk reduction and protection of vulnerable populations.
• The study highlights significant socioeconomic impacts of floods, including infrastructure damage, agricultural and livestock losses, population displacement, and exacerbation of social inequalities.

Contributions

• Integrates concepts and tools from remote sensing, geotechnologies, spatial analysis, and hydrological modeling into an applied study addressing a real and recurrent problem in Southern Brazil.
• Advances technical knowledge regarding the hydrological dynamics of the Uruguay River basin.
• Proposes practical solutions for territorial management and the mitigation of natural disasters.
• Reinforces the role of public universities in producing socially relevant knowledge aligned with regional demands and global agendas for sustainability and climate change adaptation.

Funding

• Research, teaching, and extension projects coordinated by Prof. Dr. Cassiane Jrayj de Melo within the UNIGAIA – Grupo de Ações Interdisciplinares Aplicadas at the Universidade Federal do Pampa (UNIPAMPA).

Citation

@article{JrayjDeMelo2025Rain,
  author = {Jrayj De Melo, Cassiane},
  title = {Rain Upstream, Floods Downstream: the Case of the Uruguai River in Uruguaiana-Rs},
  journal = {Open MIND},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.17743431},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17743431}
}