Sahib et al. (2025) A Study of the Shrinkage of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers and its Impact on Water Resources and Agriculture in Iraq

Identification

• Journal: European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-20
• Authors: Hasanain Saleem Sahib, Qinghua Feng
• DOI: 10.59324/ejtas.2026.4(1).03

Research Groups

• Tongji University, UNEP Institute of Environment for Sustainable Development (IESD), College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai 200092, P. R. China

Short Summary

This study quantifies the spatio-temporal shrinkage of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in Iraq between 2014 and 2022, revealing a 35.72% net decrease in water surface area primarily due to climate change and upstream dam operations, which significantly impacted agricultural land.

Objective

• To monitor and analyze the temporal trends in the contraction of water flow using official data and satellite technologies.
• To evaluate the impacts of dam construction and quantify the correlation between climate variables and the contraction of watercourses.
• To investigate how water scarcity and water quality degradation affect agricultural land use and crop production.
• To determine the technical and methodological requirements for developing an integrated geographic database for long-term monitoring.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Iraqi portion of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins, specifically focusing on six governorates: Nineveh, Al Anbar, Baghdad, Wasit, Dhi Qar, and Basrah.
• Temporal Scale: 2014 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient, statistical software (Excel, SPSS).
• Data sources: Satellite imagery (Landsat, Sentinel-2), reports from Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources and Ministry of Agriculture, reports from international organizations (UNEP, FAO), NASA POWER for climate variables, peer-reviewed scientific studies.

Main Results

• The total water surface area across the six selected governorates experienced a net decrease of 35.72% between 2014 and 2022, with the most severe contraction occurring during the 2020-2021 drought years.
• Southern governorates (Dhi Qar and Basrah) showed the most dramatic reduction in water bodies, while the northern region (Nineveh) exhibited relative stability due to the Mosul Dam Lake.
• A strong negative correlation (r = -1 or +1, p < 0.05) was found between annual precipitation and water surface area, and rising average temperatures correlated with increased water loss.
• Analysis of upstream dam operations (e.g., Ilisu and Ataturk) revealed a direct inverse relationship between their filling/operation phases and the average annual flow entering Iraq.
• High-density vegetation declined by 1,253.30 square kilometers, moderate vegetation by 1,925.38 square kilometers, while low vegetation increased by 3,850.09 square kilometers between 2014 and 2022.
• Nineveh experienced the most severe vegetation loss, with a 95.14% decrease in high-density vegetation and an 86.05% decrease in moderate vegetation.
• Official data confirmed a 60% decrease in the cultivated area for strategic crops (wheat and barley) in the affected governorates during the peak drought years.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, updated hydrological analysis of the Tigris and Euphrates system, linking environmental and political factors to agricultural outcomes.
• Fills key research gaps in regional water resource studies by offering reliable, updated data and analysis for Iraqi policymakers.
• Statistically quantifies the dual influence of climate variables and upstream dam operations on river flow, establishing a clear causal link beyond descriptive accounts.
• Delivers a robust, spatially explicit dataset that serves as a critical update to the understanding of the basin's hydrology and its impact on Iraq's food security.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sahib2025Study,
  author = {Sahib, Hasanain Saleem and Feng, Qinghua},
  title = {A Study of the Shrinkage of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers and its Impact on Water Resources and Agriculture in Iraq},
  journal = {European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.59324/ejtas.2026.4(1).03},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.59324/ejtas.2026.4(1).03}
}