Kotzur et al. (2025) Forests and woodlands resistant to drought revealed in remotely sensed foliar moisture content using probabilistic models

Identification

• Journal: bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-13
• Authors: Ivan Kotzur, Ben D. Moore, Matthias Boer, Marta Yebra, Kara Youngentob
• DOI: 10.64898/2025.12.10.692240

Research Groups

• Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University
• Fenner School of Environment & Society and the School of Engineering, Australian National University
• Research School of Biology, Australian National University

Short Summary

This study investigated the sensitivity of forest and woodland foliar moisture content (FMC) to climatic water balance across south-eastern Australia using satellite data and probabilistic models. It identified drought-resistant areas with lower FMC response to extreme drought, highlighting their potential as climate refugia and natural fire breaks.

Objective

• To study the sensitivity of forest and woodland foliar moisture content (FMC) to climatic water balance, specifically the Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), across five landscapes in temperate and sub-tropical south-eastern Australia.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Five landscapes in temperate and sub-tropical south-eastern Australia; 20 meter resolution.
• Temporal Scale: Eight years (2015-2023).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Copula-probabilistic modelling (considering drought length), radiative transfer model (for FMC inversion).
• Data sources: Sentinel-2 satellite reflectance data (used to derive FMC), Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for climatic water balance.

Main Results

• Spatial variation of foliar moisture content (FMC) within landscapes was found to be large.
• Spatial variation in FMC response to drought was very large, particularly within more arid landscapes.
• Areas exhibiting a lesser FMC response to extreme drought were identified as drought-resistant forests and woodlands.
• These drought-resistant areas are suggested as potential climate refugia for animals and natural breaks in the contiguity of fire fuels.

Contributions

• Revealed drought-resistant forest and woodland areas by analyzing remotely sensed foliar moisture content and its sensitivity to drought using probabilistic models.
• Provided a high-resolution spatial and temporal assessment of FMC response to climatic water balance across diverse Australian landscapes.
• Identified areas with potential ecological significance as climate refugia and fire management assets.

Funding

• NSW Office of Environment & Heritage

Citation

@article{Kotzur2025Forests,
  author = {Kotzur, Ivan and Moore, Ben D. and Boer, Matthias and Yebra, Marta and Youngentob, Kara},
  title = {Forests and woodlands resistant to drought revealed in remotely sensed foliar moisture content using probabilistic models},
  journal = {bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.64898/2025.12.10.692240},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.10.692240}
}