Agosta et al. (2025) A un año de la DANA de Valencia, ¿preludio de una nueva era climática?

Identification

• Journal: Cuadernos de Geografía de la Universitat de València
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-04
• Authors: Eduardo A. Agosta, David Correl, María José Estrela, Juan Javier Miró
• DOI: 10.7203/cguv.114-15.31889

Research Groups

• Departamento de Ecología Integral de la Conferencia Episcopal Española
• Facultat de Geografia i Història, Universitat de València
• Universidad de Alicante

Short Summary

This paper analyzes the unprecedented torrential rainfall event in Valencia on October 29, 2024, which recorded 771 mm in Turís, demonstrating that while the atmospheric configuration was a traditional DANA, its extreme virulence was driven by climate change-induced abnormally warm Mediterranean Sea temperatures and record atmospheric humidity.

Objective

• To determine if the extreme DANA event in Valencia on October 29, 2024, was merely another "gota fría" or the manifestation of a new category of storm intensified by climate change, through a detailed analysis of its dynamic and thermodynamic severity in the current climatic context.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands, specifically the Valencia province, and the Western Mediterranean Sea (5°W-15°E, 35°-45°N).
• Temporal Scale: Daily precipitation data from 1955-2024; Sea Surface Temperature (TSM) from 1982-2025 (daily and monthly); Reanalysis data for specific dates (October 29, 2024) and climatologies (1981-2010, 1982-2011); Trends analyzed over the last four decades and 75 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • NLPCA-EOF-QM (nonlinear principal component analysis–empirical orthogonal functions–quantile mapping) for filling missing precipitation data.
  • ACMANT (ACMANTv3.0-ACMANTP3day) for homogenizing precipitation series.
  • traj3d (Parcel Trajectory Software from the University of Melbourne) for calculating air mass trajectories.
• Data sources:
  • Daily precipitation series: Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and Associació Valenciana de Meteorologia Josep Peinado (AVAMET) networks (8,145 stations).
  • Reanalysis data (ERA5, C3S/ECMWF): hourly data on pressure levels (geopotential height, wind, air temperature at 300 and 925 hPa) and single levels (Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Vertically Integrated Humidity Flux (FHVI), Vertically Integrated Humidity Divergence (DHVI), Total Column Rainwater (ALTC), Total Column Water Vapor (VATC)).
  • Sea Surface Temperature (TSM): NOAA/NCEI Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) product (daily, integrating satellite and in situ observations).
  • Reanalysis data (NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II): for air parcel trajectory calculations.
  • NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory images.

Main Results

• The DANA event on October 29, 2024, in Valencia recorded an unprecedented 771 mm of rainfall in Turís within 24 hours.
• The average daily maximum local precipitation for the 9 most affected stations was 459.6 mm, representing an unprecedented extreme event (100th percentile).
• The 2024 event's maximum daily average precipitation was three times greater than the next highest recorded since 1955 (123.2 mm in 2000).
• The atmospheric configuration was typical of a DANA, but its extreme virulence was driven by abnormally warm Mediterranean Sea temperatures.
• The Western Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature (TSM) anomaly on October 29, 2024, was +1.22 °C (relative to the 1982-2011 baseline).
• A sustained warming trend of +1.44 °C in TSM was observed in the Western Mediterranean over the last four decades, significant at 99% confidence.
• Atmospheric humidity over the Western Mediterranean showed a systematic increase of +1.878 kg/m² over the last 75 years.
• October 2024 recorded a historic high anomaly of +5.73 kg/m² in total column water vapor, 362% above the mean of absolute anomalies (100th percentile).
• Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) over the Western Mediterranean increased by 8.75 J/(kg·decade) in autumn over recent decades, significant at 99% confidence.
• Air parcel trajectories showed low-level air masses spent significant time over the warm Western Mediterranean, absorbing moisture.
• Total Column Rainwater (ALTC) and Vertically Integrated Humidity Flux Convergence (DHVI) reached 100th percentile values over the affected area, indicating unprecedented conditions.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed, quantitative analysis of the unprecedented DANA event in Valencia on October 29, 2024, establishing its extreme nature in historical context.
• Empirically demonstrates the critical role of anthropogenically-driven climate change in exacerbating DANA events through increased Mediterranean Sea temperatures and atmospheric humidity.
• Redefines the understanding of "gota fría" events by showing how climate change transforms familiar atmospheric mechanisms into unprecedented extreme climatic events.
• Offers robust evidence supporting the intensification of hydrometeorological extremes in the Mediterranean region due to global warming.
• Emphasizes the urgent need for societal adaptation policies to a new and more severe climatic reality in the face of intensified extreme weather.

Funding

No explicit funding information was provided in the paper text.

Citation

@article{Agosta2025un,
  author = {Agosta, Eduardo A. and Correl, David and Estrela, María José and Miró, Juan Javier},
  title = {A un año de la DANA de Valencia, ¿preludio de una nueva era climática?},
  journal = {Cuadernos de Geografía de la Universitat de València},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.7203/cguv.114-15.31889},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.7203/cguv.114-15.31889}
}