Zhao et al. (2026) Ecological drought patterns and drivers in Inner Mongolia using a modified temperature vegetation drought index

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Ecosphere
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-01
• Authors: Jiapei Zhao, Enliang Guo, Yu Wang, Yao Kang, Jisiguleng Wu, Yaodong Zhang, Mengmeng Zhang
• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70600

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study proposes a novel ecological drought index (kTVDI) for Inner Mongolia, analyzing its spatial-temporal dynamics and drivers from 2000 to 2022. It reveals a general amelioration of ecological drought during the growing season, with complex regional and temporal variations influenced by climate and human activities.

Objective

• To propose a novel ecological drought index, the kernel temperature vegetation drought index (kTVDI), by refining the traditional temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) using kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) derived from MODIS data.
• To analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics and future trends of ecological drought during the growing season in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2022.
• To explore the correlations between kTVDI and meteorological variables (potential evapotranspiration, temperature, precipitation) and the impact of human activities on ecological drought.
• To elucidate the pathways through which natural environmental elements and human activities influence ecological drought using structural equation modeling (SEM).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Inner Mongolia, China.
• Temporal Scale: 2000 to 2022 (23 years), focusing on the growing season.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Kernel Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (kTVDI)
  • Theil–Sen trend analysis
  • Mann–Kendall test
  • Hurst index
  • Partial correlation analysis
  • Residual analysis
  • Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)
• Data sources:
  • MODIS data (for kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - kNDVI)
  • Meteorological variables: potential evapotranspiration (PET), temperature (TM), precipitation (PRE)

Main Results

• A general trend toward the amelioration of ecological drought was observed during the growing season in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2022.
• The highest incidence of breakpoints in ecological drought trends occurred in July.
• Spatially, ecological drought conditions transitioned from mild wetness in the northeast to severe drought in the southwest.
• Temporally, increased dryness was observed in May, June, and August, while wetness trends were prominent in July, September, and October.
• Future spatial patterns of ecological drought may show reverse trends.
• Precipitation was negatively correlated with ecological drought across 89% of the region.
• Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was positively correlated with ecological drought in 42.2% of the area.
• Temperature (TM) was positively correlated with ecological drought in 51.5% of the area.
• Human activities exacerbated ecological drought in western Inner Mongolia and mitigated it in the eastern regions.
• Climatic conditions and human activities indirectly influence ecological drought through their impacts on the leaf area and productivity of vegetation.

Contributions

• Introduction of a novel ecological drought index (kTVDI) that refines the traditional TVDI by incorporating kNDVI, enhancing drought assessment accuracy.
• Comprehensive spatial and temporal analysis of ecological drought dynamics and future trends in Inner Mongolia over a 23-year period.
• Quantification of the individual and combined influences of meteorological variables and human activities on ecological drought.
• Elucidation of the indirect pathways through which climate and human activities affect ecological drought via vegetation leaf area and productivity using SEM.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Zhao2026Ecological,
  author = {Zhao, Jiapei and Guo, Enliang and Wang, Yu and Kang, Yao and Wu, Jisiguleng and Zhang, Yaodong and Zhang, Mengmeng},
  title = {Ecological drought patterns and drivers in Inner Mongolia using a modified temperature vegetation drought index},
  journal = {Ecosphere},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/ecs2.70600},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70600}
}