Khemiri et al. (2026) The Superposition of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Pressure Threatens Blue Water Resources in Tunisia

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Processes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-01
• Authors: Khaoula Khemiri, Anis Chekirbane, Daniele Penna, Christian Massari
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70501

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study assesses the combined impacts of climate change, land use/land cover change, and irrigation on surface and groundwater in a Tunisian agro-hydrological basin. It identifies critical hydrological thresholds for irrigation-induced groundwater recharge and projects future reservoir decline, threatening water sustainability.

Objective

• To conduct an integrated, data-driven assessment of surface and groundwater responses in the Chiba watershed (northern Tunisia) under historical and projected climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios, specifically exploring the combined effects of these drivers and irrigation on water resources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: A representative agro-hydrological basin in northern Tunisia (Chiba watershed), characterized by a reservoir used for irrigation.
• Temporal Scale: Five periods: P0 (1993–2014), P1 (1993–2003), P2 (2004–2014), and projections for the 2030s and 2050s.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT hydrological model.
• Data sources: Bias-corrected climate data from CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) as provided in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, and seven land-use maps derived from remote sensing.

Main Results

• A critical hydrological threshold for irrigation-induced groundwater recharge was identified: monthly rainfall must exceed 15–25 mm, and reservoir storage must remain above 1.5 million cubic meters (Mm³) to ensure recharge.
• Historical conditions supported sufficient irrigation-induced recharge, but future projections indicate a decline in reservoir storage.
• The projected reservoir decline threatens water sustainability in the region.
• The study highlights a fragile balance between rainfall, storage, irrigation, and recharge processes, underscoring the vulnerability of Mediterranean systems to climate variability.
• Without appropriate management interventions, future hydro-climatic conditions are projected to threaten both water security and groundwater sustainability.

Contributions

• Provides an integrated, data-driven assessment of the combined effects of climate change, land use/land cover change, and irrigation on surface and groundwater resources in a North African basin, an area previously insufficiently explored.
• Quantifies specific hydrological thresholds (monthly rainfall and reservoir storage) necessary for irrigation-induced groundwater recharge.
• Emphasizes the critical need for adaptive water governance to maintain sustainability and ecosystem resilience in Mediterranean systems under future hydro-climatic and management constraints.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Khemiri2026Superposition,
  author = {Khemiri, Khaoula and Chekirbane, Anis and Penna, Daniele and Massari, Christian},
  title = {The Superposition of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Pressure Threatens Blue Water Resources in Tunisia},
  journal = {Hydrological Processes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.70501},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70501}
}