Çavuş et al. (2026) Budyko Curve Conformance Unravelling Hydrological Change in a Semi‐Arid Mediterranean‐Climate River Basin

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Processes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Yonca Çavuş, Dilek Eren Akyüz, Ebru Eriş, Hafzullah Aksoy
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70657

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study utilizes a Budyko-based water balance framework to analyze long-term streamflow changes in the Gediz River Basin, concluding that climate variability—specifically declining precipitation—is a primary driver of streamflow reduction since a regime shift in 1984.

Objective

• To investigate long-term streamflow changes in the Gediz River Basin and attribute these changes to either climate variability or anthropogenic drivers.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Gediz River Basin, Western Turkey (Mediterranean catchment).
• Temporal Scale: Multi-decadal.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Budyko-based water balance framework, Fu curves, time-series segmentation (for regime shift detection), and decomposition and sensitivity methods (for attribution).
• Data sources: Multi-decadal observations from 18 streamflow gauging stations and 4 meteorological stations.

Main Results

• A common hydrological regime shift occurred in 1984, after which streamflow consistently declined across most gauges.
• Post-1984 periods showed increased evaporation ratios and elevated Fu parameters, indicating intensified aridity.
• Climate variability (primarily declining precipitation) accounts for 50%–75% of the total streamflow change.
• Anthropogenic drivers contribute significantly to streamflow reduction in specific sub-basins.
• Most gauging stations align with Budyko expectations, though deviations occur in high-altitude headwaters due to snowmelt, karst geomorphology, and data limitations.

Contributions

• Challenges the prevailing assumption that human activity is the dominant factor in the region's streamflow decrease, suggesting that climate-driven changes may be more significant in Western Turkey.
• Demonstrates the utility of Budyko-based practical methodologies for water resource planning in data-scarce, semi-arid regions.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Çavuş2026Budyko,
  author = {Çavuş, Yonca and Akyüz, Dilek Eren and Eriş, Ebru and Aksoy, Hafzullah},
  title = {Budyko Curve Conformance Unravelling Hydrological Change in a Semi‐Arid Mediterranean‐Climate River Basin},
  journal = {Hydrological Processes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.70657},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70657}
}