Sánchez-Balseca et al. (2026) Green Infrastructure as a Climate Shield: Nonlinear Flood Response and Extremes Saturation in a Tropical Andean Urban Watershed

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Processes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-31
• Authors: Joseph Sánchez-Balseca, Agustí Pérez Foguet, Bolívar Erazo
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70662

Research Groups

• Instituto Geofísico del Ecuador (IGE)
• Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM)

Short Summary

This study introduces an integrated methodology to evaluate the hydrological role of green infrastructure in tropical mountain watersheds under climate change, using a framework that combines CMIP6 projections with Quantile Mapping bias correction and physically informed IDF curve development.

Objective

• Assess flood risk in data-scarce tropical mountain watersheds under climate change

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Local scale (Güanguiltagua Metropolitan Park in Quito, Ecuador)
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (climate projections from CMIP6)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 Low Resolution (MPI-ESM1-2-LR)
• Data sources: Satellite-derived precipitation from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), open-access climate data

Main Results

• Extreme events exhibit a saturation signal converging towards ~95 mm/day under MPI-ESM1-2-LR projections
• Conservation of natural cover reduces peak flows by 73%-85% across all scenarios and return periods
• Urbanized sub-basins show minimal climate sensitivity, underscoring persistent vulnerability

Contributions

• Introduces a modular framework for flood risk assessment in the Global South
• Highlights the importance of green infrastructure in reducing flood risk under climate change

Funding

• This research was funded by the [project name] (reference code: [code]) and supported by the Instituto Geofísico del Ecuador (IGE) and Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM).

Citation

@article{SánchezBalseca2026Green,
  author = {Sánchez-Balseca, Joseph and Foguet, Agustí Pérez and Erazo, Bolívar},
  title = {Green Infrastructure as a Climate Shield: Nonlinear Flood Response and Extremes Saturation in a Tropical Andean Urban Watershed},
  journal = {Hydrological Processes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.70662},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70662}
}