Li et al. (2026) Hydrological Controls and Climate–Land Surface Interactions Regulating Long‐Term Lake Area Dynamics Across the Mongolian Plateau

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Processes
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Jingwen Li, Yiben Cheng, Zixuan Yuan, Tao Yu, Zhiming Xin
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70697

Research Groups

• Institute of Geography Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study reconstructed lake area changes across the Mongolian Plateau from 1990 to 2025 and examined associations with hydroclimatic, ecological, and human factors using machine learning models. The results show that lake dynamics reflect interacting influences that vary spatially and with lake size.

Objective

• Investigate the relationships between lake area changes and hydroclimatic, ecological, and human factors across the Mongolian Plateau

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale (Mongolian Plateau)
• Temporal Scale: 35 years (1990-2025)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: XGBoost and SHAP
• Data sources: Landsat imagery, JRC Global Surface Water, HydroLAKES

Main Results

• Total lake area increased by +8.51% from 19033.31 km² in 1990 to 20652.31 km² in 2025.
• Climatic variables contributed most strongly to model predictions (44.36%), with potential evapotranspiration and snow cover showing greater importance than precipitation.
• Regional and size-dependent differences were evident, with Mongolia showing stronger climate-ecology associations and human-activity variables being relatively more important in Inner Mongolia.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the complex interactions between hydroclimatic, ecological, and human factors driving lake dynamics across the Mongolian Plateau.
• The results highlight the importance of considering regional and size-dependent differences when studying lake area changes.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42171012)
• National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFA0609700)

Citation

@article{Li2026Hydrological,
  author = {Li, Jingwen and Cheng, Yiben and Yuan, Zixuan and Yu, Tao and Xin, Zhiming},
  title = {Hydrological Controls and Climate–Land Surface Interactions Regulating Long‐Term Lake Area Dynamics Across the Mongolian Plateau},
  journal = {Hydrological Processes},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.70697},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70697}
}