Nagano et al. (2026) Estimating Rice Transplanting Dates and Projected Shifts under Climate Change in Japan with the Use of Sentinel‐1 Imagery and CMIP6 Scenarios

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Identification

• Journal: Irrigation and Drainage
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: Takanori Nagano, Yueying Sui, Natsuki Yoshikawa, 賢治 田中
• DOI: 10.1002/ird.70222

Research Groups

• Department of Agricultural Science, University of Tokyo
• National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
• Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of climate change on rice transplanting timings in Japan's Hyogo and Niigata Prefectures using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, predicting significant delays by the end of the 21st century. The research aims to provide insights for adjusting transplanting schedules to mitigate climate change impacts.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between climate change and rice transplanting timings in Japan's Hyogo and Niigata Prefectures

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Hyogo and Niigata Prefectures, Japan)
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (current trends to end of 21st century)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 RCP 8.5 scenario
• Data sources: Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, survey data from agricultural corporations and cooperatives

Main Results

• Significant delay in future transplanting dates predicted by the end of the 21st century (35 days in Hyogo and 74 days in Niigata)
• Delays more pronounced in higher-elevation and colder regions
• Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 9.8 days for Hyogo and 6.2 days for Niigata Prefectures

Contributions

• Provides an integrated approach to understanding the impact of climate change on rice transplanting timings
• Offers valuable insights for adjusting transplanting schedules to mitigate climate change impacts

Funding

• This research was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Number 19H00855 and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas.

Citation

@article{Nagano2026Estimating,
  author = {Nagano, Takanori and Sui, Yueying and Yoshikawa, Natsuki and 田中, 賢治},
  title = {Estimating Rice Transplanting Dates and Projected Shifts under Climate Change in Japan with the Use of Sentinel‐1 Imagery and CMIP6 Scenarios},
  journal = {Irrigation and Drainage},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/ird.70222},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.70222}
}