Fakour et al. (2026) From Past to Future: Risk Assessment and Identification of Susceptible Areas to Extreme Precipitation Under Changing Climate Across the Middle East

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-04
• Authors: Poya Fakour, Zbigniew Ustrnul, Ali Reza Massah Bavani
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70250

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study develops a probabilistic risk assessment for extreme precipitation events (EPEs) across the Middle East, projecting significant increases in "at risk" and "high-risk" areas by 2100, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with northwestern/western Iran and northern/central Turkey consistently identified as high-risk zones.

Objective

• To develop a probabilistic risk assessment for extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and identify high-risk zones for heavy rainfall in the Middle East.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Middle East
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1941–2020, 80 years); Future projections (2021–2100, 80 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 models
• Data sources: Daily precipitation data from ERA5 (reanalysis), CMIP6 models

Main Results

• Areas were categorized into four distinct risk levels: no risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk, with statistical significance tested at the 5% level.
• Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, medium- and high-risk extents remained relatively stable, but 16% of areas historically classified as "no risk" shifted to "low-risk."
• Under the SSP5-8.8 scenario, almost 80% of the region fell into "at risk" categories.
• Specifically, 35% of the region was classified as "high-risk" by 2100 under SSP5-8.5, indicating a significant transition of previously "no and low-risk" areas into high-risk categories.
• Northwestern and western Iran, along with northern and central Turkey, consistently appeared as "high-risk" zones across historical analysis and both future scenarios.

Contributions

• Provides a probabilistic risk assessment for extreme precipitation events in the Middle East, a region highly vulnerable to climate change.
• Generates a spatially explicit risk map identifying current and future high-risk zones for heavy rainfall.
• Quantifies the projected shifts in risk levels under different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).
• Highlights consistently susceptible regions (e.g., northwestern/western Iran, northern/central Turkey) for targeted climate adaptation strategies.
• Offers crucial information for water management strategies and infrastructure planning in regions facing increased extreme weather patterns.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Fakour2026From,
  author = {Fakour, Poya and Ustrnul, Zbigniew and Bavani, Ali Reza Massah},
  title = {From Past to Future: Risk Assessment and Identification of Susceptible Areas to Extreme Precipitation Under Changing Climate Across the Middle East},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70250},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70250}
}