Gualdi et al. (2026) Seasonal Predictions and Their Applications in the Mediterranean Region: Part II—Prediction‐Based Services

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-25
• Authors: Silvio Gualdi, Ernesto Rodríguez Camino, Estéban Rodríguez Guisado, Andrea Toreti, Massimiliano Pasqui, Constantin Ardilouze, Wafae Badi, Lauriane Batté, Fatima Driouech, Kristina J. H. Fröhlich, Javier García‐Serrano, Silvia Terzago, Verónica Torralba
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70300

Research Groups

This review synthesizes work from numerous research groups involved in global initiatives (e.g., Global Framework for Climate Services) and EU-funded projects (e.g., EUPORIAS, MEDSCOPE, MED-GOLD) focused on climate services in the Mediterranean region.

Short Summary

This review paper examines the development and application of seasonal climate predictions as actionable information for decision-making in the Mediterranean region, illustrating the iterative process of transforming probabilistic forecasts into tailored climate services for key sectors.

Objective

• To review the development and application of seasonal climate predictions as actionable information for decision-making in the Mediterranean region, illustrating the steps required to transform climate model probabilistic forecasts into user-defined information and discussing challenges and recommendations for enhancing climate service effectiveness.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mediterranean region.
• Temporal Scale: Primarily seasonal timescales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: This review discusses the application of various climate models, impact models, and post-processing tools (e.g., bias adjustment, downscaling, probabilistic calibration) within climate services. It does not employ specific models itself.
• Data sources: This review discusses the utilization of climate model probabilistic forecasts and various observational and reanalysis data sources within the reviewed climate services. It does not present new data.

Main Results

• Climate services in the Mediterranean leverage tools such as bias adjustment, downscaling, probabilistic calibration, and impact models to transform probabilistic seasonal forecasts into tailored solutions for sectors including energy, water supply, transport, and agriculture.
• Global initiatives (e.g., GFCS) and EU-funded projects (e.g., EUPORIAS, MEDSCOPE, MED-GOLD) have significantly advanced sector-specific applications, addressing critical challenges like renewable energy planning, drought risk mitigation, and agricultural yield forecasting.
• Persistent challenges include limited forecasting skill in the Mediterranean area, issues with data accessibility, and the need for robust impact-based verification of climate services.
• Recommendations for enhancing the uptake and effectiveness of climate services include fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, promoting iterative co-production with users, improving the communication of uncertainty and forecast skill, and ensuring the sustainability of services beyond project lifetimes.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive synthesis of the state-of-the-art in developing and applying seasonal climate predictions for decision-making in the Mediterranean region.
• Illustrates the iterative nature of climate service development, bridging the gap between scientific advances in forecasting and practical applications for societal resilience.
• Identifies key challenges and offers actionable recommendations for improving the effectiveness, uptake, and sustainability of climate services in the region.

Funding

• Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
• EUPORIAS (EU-funded project)
• MEDSCOPE (EU-funded project)
• MED-GOLD (EU-funded project)

Citation

@article{Gualdi2026Seasonal,
  author = {Gualdi, Silvio and Camino, Ernesto Rodríguez and Guisado, Estéban Rodríguez and Toreti, Andrea and Pasqui, Massimiliano and Ardilouze, Constantin and Badi, Wafae and Batté, Lauriane and Driouech, Fatima and Fröhlich, Kristina J. H. and García‐Serrano, Javier and Terzago, Silvia and Torralba, Verónica},
  title = {Seasonal Predictions and Their Applications in the Mediterranean Region: Part II—Prediction‐Based Services},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70300},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70300}
}