Arbai et al. (2026) Projected Annual and Monsoonal Precipitation Trends of CMIP 6 Over P eninsular M alaysia

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-08
• Authors: Nurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai, MASAYASU IRIE
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70335

Research Groups

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigated historical (1973–2022) and projected (2051–2100) precipitation trends over Peninsular Malaysia using ground-based records and CMIP6 GCMs, revealing spatially heterogeneous patterns influenced by monsoons, with future projections indicating modest increases under SSP2-4.5 but widespread declines under SSP5-8.5.

Objective

• To investigate the historical and projected precipitation trends over Peninsular Malaysia (PM) using ground-based precipitation records and high-resolution CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Peninsular Malaysia
• Temporal Scale:
  • Historical: 1973–2022 (50 years)
  • Projected: 2051–2100 (50 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 GCMs from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (10 models assessed, 5 best-performing models selected for Multi-Model Ensemble - MME).
• Data sources:
  • Ground-based precipitation records from 518 reliable gauges.
  • High-resolution CMIP6 GCMs from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6.
  • Bias-correction applied using a linear scaling method.

Main Results

• Precipitation distribution is spatially heterogeneous, heavily influenced by topography and monsoonal regimes.
• Historically (1973–2022):
  • Negative precipitation trends dominated during the Southwest Monsoon (SWM).
  • Positive precipitation trends were observed during the Northeast Monsoon (NEM), particularly along the east coast.
• Under future scenarios (2051–2100):
  • SSP2-4.5: Projected modest increases in precipitation and smaller areas of negative trends.
  • SSP5-8.5: Projected more widespread and intense declines in precipitation, particularly along the southeastern coast.

Contributions

• Highlights the climatic sensitivity of Peninsular Malaysia under varying emission pathways.
• Emphasises the importance of integrating reliable observational data and robust model ensembles for future water resource planning and climate adaptation strategies.

Funding

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Arbai2026Projected,
  author = {Arbai, Nurul Afiqah Mohamad and IRIE, MASAYASU},
  title = {Projected Annual and Monsoonal Precipitation Trends of <scp>CMIP</scp> 6 Over <scp>P</scp> eninsular <scp>M</scp> alaysia},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70335},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70335}
}